The September calendar is busy

Second-quarter growth figures will be released first on Monday, September 1st. According to an AA Finance survey, the economy is expected to grow by 3.87% in the second quarter. For the full year, growth is projected to be 3.18%. The Turkish economy grew by 3.2% in 2024 and 4% in 2023. Following the growth data, all eyes will turn to August inflation on Wednesday, September 3rd. Market inflation forecasts are around 1.7% monthly. Inflation had exceeded 2% in July. Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan emphasized that this increase is a cyclical effect and is temporary. The inflation figure is important for markets , as lower-than-projected inflation data could pave the way for further interest rate cuts. The opposite could also happen. The interest rate decision will be announced on September 11th. The Central Bank's primary focus will be both August inflation and preliminary spending activity for September. Economists expect a 300 basis point cut. Hakan Aran, General Manager of İşbank, stated that the Central Bank has an 800 basis point area for a reduction this year. Şekib Avdagiç, President of the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce, stated that a 1,000 basis point reduction is necessary for the remainder of the year. The bank will announce a total of three interest rate decisions by the end of the year. Another critical agenda item lies between the inflation data and the Central Bank's interest rate decision. As I mentioned at the beginning of this article, the Medium-Term Program will be announced. This program is announced for three years and is revised annually. Targets for macroeconomic data such as growth, inflation, the budget, and the current account deficit are being shared. The reforms and legal regulations to be implemented over the next three years are being determined. In addition to these developments, the CHP congress trial on September 15th will also be a focus of the markets.