How much is European defense worth without U.S. troops? Their withdrawal will be a huge problem.

• One of the biggest concerns for Europe during Donald Trump's second term concerns the possibility of withdrawing US troops from the old continent.
• Experts immediately calculated that the costs that European Union countries, without the USA, would have to bear to effectively strengthen their defense would be horrendous.
• Poland hopes that its importance on NATO's eastern flank, its very high military spending relative to GDP, and its arms purchases from the US guarantee that US soldiers will remain in Poland. But is this entirely certain?
• We will discuss the importance of the latest defense investments during the "Industry for Defense" conference. The event will take place on October 15 at the International Congress Center in Katowice.

In Europe, and also in Poland, we've come to expect the Americans to always come to our aid in times of danger. We've used their defense umbrella without scruple. One of the pillars of this security is the American military, permanently or rotationally stationed in selected European countries, including on NATO's eastern flank.

It is no wonder that after Donald Trump's announcements suggesting that he is cutting himself off from Europe and talking about a partial or even complete withdrawal of American troops stationed here, Europe concluded that this would mean serious trouble.

Such a scenario could still come true. On July 28, Politico, citing NATO sources, reported that the United States wants to reduce its troops in Europe by as much as 30 percent . Will Poland also be targeted by the US in this reduction?

"We are stuck in the old thinking that only the United States can protect us from Russia. This is changing, but still too slowly. In recent years, no new divisions or even brigades have been formed in Western European NATO countries. Europe realizes that without American guarantees, it is still too weak to face Russia," said retired Lieutenant General Waldemar Skrzypczak, former commander of the Land Forces and former deputy minister of national defense, during a recent interview with the WIS portal.

We'll likely be quoting the general's statements on military, political, and defense matters for a long time to come, as he's one of Poland's finest commanders, whose opinions, sometimes harsh and uncompromising, remain relevant. They're worth recalling for both instruction and caution.

Europe will not be able to defend itself in the event of a conflict with Russia at present.

Analysts from numerous global think tanks have weighed in on the problems Europe could face if US troops withdraw . Their conclusions are similar: Americans are irreplaceable in Europe, according to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

The IISS assessed the financial costs and defense industrial capabilities of European NATO nations to defend themselves against a future threat from Russia if the United States withdrew from NATO.

The report concludes that Europe could function without American military support, but replacing its capabilities would take a quarter of a century and cost up to $1 trillion during that period .

Just to purchase the 400 tactical aircraft, 20 destroyers and 24 long-range surface-to-air missile systems that Europe needs to achieve relative defense independence, between USD 226 and USD 344 billion would have to be spent.

European NATO countries would also have to rapidly increase their military strength by at least 300,000 soldiers . This would generate additional costs, not only for equipment maintenance and upkeep, but also for the increased personnel required to operate it.

Analysts from the Polish Institute of Strategic Studies, which specializes in international relations with a particular focus on Poland's integration with the European Union, have reached similar conclusions. They estimate that the cost of replacing all American personnel in Europe (including civilians, approximately 128,000) in the event of a large-scale military operation would exceed $12 billion.

These expenditures do not include many difficult-to-estimate costs, such as those generated by control and coordination institutions, space utilization, and intelligence. Europeans would also need to fill key military positions, including the Supreme Allied Commander and the Supreme NATO Commander in Europe , as well as many non-military positions, such as diplomatic coordination.

Therefore, the countries of the Old Continent, which are just starting to rebuild their combat potential, would find themselves in a difficult situation without the help of the USA in the event of a large-scale conflict.

Critical assessment of the US military leads to the recall of US troops from Europe

Fears of a US withdrawal from Europe seemed to have been dispelled by the June NATO summit in The Hague, where allied European countries almost unanimously agreed to raise military spending to 5 percent of GDP by 2035.

Donald Trump seemed pleased with these declarations, assuring that NATO's Article 5 was still in force and that America would not leave its allies alone in their misery.

This doesn't mean, however, that the US administration has changed its mind regarding troop withdrawal from Europe. It's telling, for example, that the conservative think tank Defense Priorities, a few weeks before the Pentagon published its Global Posture Review (GPR), published a document summarizing the US military presence in the world.

This report, now being discussed by industry media, is intended to serve as a basis for a discussion on the US military presence in the world, which the presidential administration will undertake this fall. This is something its authors, or rather its author, Dan Caldwell, an advisor to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth until April of this year, point out.

The main theses of the report boil down to the fact that the US armed forces were assessed as weak, the weakest for the first time since 2015. The worst-rated: the US Air Force (USAF) due to staff shortages and a low number of flight hours, but also the US Navy for poor readiness and very weak quantitative potential.

The Space Force, the sixth branch of the US military, established in 2019 and tasked with providing space capabilities to the US and allied forces, was also targeted. The assessment concluded that these capabilities fall far short of the force's expected offensive and defensive capabilities.

The highest ratings were given to the US Marine Corps (USMC), which is strong thanks to modernization and reorganization, and to the US nuclear deterrent system. It was described as adequate, although threatened by China's growing capabilities.

There are as many as 200,000 American soldiers stationed outside the United States.

According to this report, submitted to the White House, as many as 200,000 American troops are stationed outside the United States, 90,000 of whom are in Europe. There are 39,000 American troops in Germany, 14,000 in Poland (rotational presence), and 13,000 in Italy. The report concludes that this is clearly too large, even for a response to the Russian threat. Hence the proposal to reduce American troops in Europe.

The argument for this is that since Russia has been unable to cope with a smaller and less armed Ukraine for 3.5 years, there is no chance that it will challenge the whole of Europe, especially since any war would be a defensive war for our continent.

This raised concerns that the relocation of American troops could also affect Poland. The decision by the U.S. Army Europe and Africa Command (USAREUR-AF) to withdraw American troops from Jasionka had already raised concerns. However, it quickly became clear that this decision had been planned in advance, in close cooperation with NATO and the Polish authorities.

"US troops remain in Poland, but in different locations. This decision was agreed upon and communicated with us. We have identified bases where we can accommodate American soldiers," assured then-Minister of National Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz.

So does President Andrzej Duda. "I have no information that plans to limit the presence of US troops apply to Poland. On the contrary, we talked about intensifying this presence," the head of state emphasized.

What's most important to us is that while the report is critical of the structural problems of the American military, it also recognizes the value of alliances, including the partnership with Poland. As emphasized, the United States is only strong with allies. Moreover, the Defense Priorities reports emphasize that cooperation with Poland and NATO is crucial to maintaining the United States' global position.

Poland is cited as an important regional partner that enhances NATO's deterrence capabilities, and Europe as a favorable operational environment. Poland's growing importance in the international arena, including in the United States, is noticeable in the context of the war in Ukraine and the modernization of the Polish Armed Forces. The report highlights, among other things, Poland's growing role as a pillar of NATO's eastern flank, playing an increasingly important role in the Pentagon's deterrence strategy, especially in the context of NATO's eastern flank.

The Pentagon treats our country as a focal point in deterring Russia.

Americans cannot ignore the fact that Poland maintains permanent and rotational US military bases in Poland, including those in Powidz, Drawsko Pomorskie, and Żagań. Since 2020, the US Army's V Corps Command has been operating in Poznań, coordinating land operations in Europe. We are also investing in warehouses, runways, and command centers for US forces from our own resources, though not without assistance from the US and NATO.

In addition, at enormous costs, considering our budget, we are purchasing equipment compatible with US forces, such as HIMARS rocket artillery systems, Patriot anti-missile systems, F-35 and Abrams aircraft, MQ-9B SkyGuardian drones, JASSM-ER and NSM missiles, which enhance strike and deterrence capabilities, and reconnaissance aircraft. Poland is one of the first countries outside the US to implement the IBCS fire command system.

Our military also participates in exercises involving thousands of US troops, such as Defender Europe, Anakonda, and Dragon . Through these exercises, Poland not only strengthens its own security but also contributes to NATO's deterrence system, becoming one of the US's most committed partners in Europe.

It should come as no surprise, then, that Poland is considered a model of engagement by the Pentagon, both in terms of spending and interoperability with US forces. Therefore, it's difficult for us to imagine these relations changing, with anyone in the Department of Defense or the Trump administration seeking the withdrawal of US troops from our country. On the contrary, we count on continued allied support.

US administration and military officials have repeatedly assured us that Poland is of strategic importance to NATO, and that the Pentagon considers our country a focal point in deterring Russia (alongside Romania and the Baltic states). Already in late 2024, the US State Department declared that Poland is a cornerstone of NATO's eastern flank and a key strategic partner for the United States.

"Poland has been a wonderful host. Over the past few years, we've moved to more permanent facilities in the country," said Gen. Christopher Donahue, commander of U.S. Army Europe and Africa, after the relocation of American soldiers from Jasionka.

The challenge is to keep Europe united

Despite President Trump's frequent changes of heart and the resulting uncertainty, the prospect of a complete withdrawal of US troops from Poland seems unlikely. The problem is that even if they remained in our country in undiminished numbers but reduced their presence in other European countries, it would still pose a problem for us.

General Jarosław Gromadziński, commander of Eurocorps since June 2023, reminded the audience at Defence24 Days in 2024 that Europe must speak with one voice. Dispersed decision-making and differences in military engagement can be exploited by adversaries as a weakness.

General Stanisław Koziej, former head of the National Security Bureau and former deputy head of the Ministry of National Defense, shares a similar view. In an interview with our website, he repeatedly emphasized that Europe should not allow itself to be divided on the issue of military support for Ukraine, but also into European Union countries supported militarily by the US or not.

- If the United States were to leave Europe, it would be very risky and bad not only for Ukraine, the European Union and Poland, but also for the interests of the United States - assured General Koziej.

Gen. Dr. Roman Polko, former commander of the GROM special unit, has long argued that one of Russia's ultimate long-term strategic goals is to oust the United States from Europe.

- Putin aims to permanently divide Europe, eliminate US influence and break up NATO unity - warns General Polko.

Of course, keeping Europe united is the most important issue to resolve. Europe remains divided, and so far, each country still primarily pursues its own interests, and this will not change for a long time. However, we should not forget that Poland's security, in terms of alliances, must rest on two pillars: American aid, but also the reliable support of NATO European countries—our closest allies.