Markets are focused on the growth data to be released in the US.

While the effects of the US's protectionist trade policy on the fight against inflation in the country are one of the main economic agenda items, the signals from the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which the US Federal Reserve (Fed) considers as an inflation indicator, whose quarterly data will be released today and monthly data tomorrow, are expected to reduce uncertainties regarding the Fed's interest rate cut process.

In addition, while growth data for the second quarter is expected to increase by 3.1 percent compared to the same quarter of the previous year, this data is expected to be effective in clarifying financial projections globally.

Meanwhile, the government's ongoing criticism of the Fed is a major focus for investors. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that they have 11 strong candidates for the Fed chairmanship, adding that they will begin interviews after Labor Day and present Trump with a final list of candidates.

Analysts said the government was acting prematurely for a change in May next year, adding that the "shadow Fed" dilemma would have an impact on risk appetite in markets if a potential candidate emerged.

While money market prices indicate an 87 percent probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, a total of 50 basis points is expected by the end of the year.

NVIDIA'S REVENUE EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS

California-based chipmaker Nvidia's revenue rose 56 percent year-over-year to $46.7 billion in the quarter, beating market expectations. The company also saw its revenue grow by 6 percent from the previous quarter.

The chipmaker announced its revenue forecast for the current quarter as $54 billion. While Nvidia's revenue from data centers increased by 56 percent year-over-year to $41.1 billion, it fell short of expectations.

Analysts stated that investors' revenue expectations for the current period are around $60 billion, and that both the differences in expectations for the current period and the failure of the revenue from data centers to meet expectations have shaken investors' risk appetite.

Nvidia's shares fell 3.2 percent in after-market trading following the release of its financial results. This sell-off was mirrored by other U.S. semiconductor stocks.

While the impact of these developments on the bond and gold markets is being monitored, the US 10-year bond yield, after falling to 4.24 percent yesterday, continued its downward trend and settled at 4.23 percent.

The price of an ounce of gold closed at $3,397 yesterday with a 0.2 percent decrease, and is currently being sold at $3,390 with a 0.2 percent decrease in value.

While the dollar index is trading flat at 98.1, the price of a barrel of Brent crude is currently trading at $66.8, down 0.5 percent.

On the New York Stock Exchange yesterday, the S&P 500 index gained 0.24 percent, the Nasdaq index gained 0.21 percent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.32 percent. Index futures contracts in the US also opened the day with mixed activity.

All eyes on the ECB minutes

While European stock markets, excluding France, saw a sell-off yesterday, investors in the region are focusing on the minutes of the European Central Bank's (ECB) July meeting, which will be released today.

While the minutes to be released today are expected to provide more information about the ECB's interest rate cut path, messages regarding growth and companies' funding costs are expected to have a significant impact on the direction of the markets.

While the ECB is expected to continue its monetary easing in October and December, uncertainty regarding the magnitude of interest rate cuts continues in money markets.

On the other hand, news flow regarding political uncertainties in France is being closely followed by investors in the region.

Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index in the UK fell 0.11 percent, the DAX 40 in Germany fell 0.44 percent, and the FTSE MIB 30 in Italy fell 0.72 percent, while the CAC 40 index in France rose 0.44 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe opened the day positively.

While a mixed trend is evident in Asian stock markets, despite Nvidia's balance sheet exceeding expectations, question marks about the future are leading investors to act cautiously.

While the US chip giant's total revenue reached a record level, it also showed its slowest growth rate since the first quarter of fiscal 2024, and the resulting concerns were reflected in technology stocks in the region.

Shares of Japanese technology company Nikon Corporation fell 4.3 percent, Renesas Electronics fell 0.3 percent and Samsung Electronics fell 0.7 percent.

On the other hand, the South Korean Central Bank left the policy rate unchanged at 2.50 percent, in line with expectations.

With these developments, Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 0.7 percent and South Korea's Kospi index gained 0.6 percent as trading neared the close. China's Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.1 percent.

STOCK MARKET DECLINED

Following a sell-heavy trend yesterday, the BIST 100 index on the Borsa Istanbul closed the day at 11,359.01 points, losing 1.48 percent. The August futures contract based on the BIST 30 index on the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) traded at 12,608.00 points in yesterday evening's session, flat compared to the regular session close.

USD/TRY, which closed at 41.0370 yesterday by moving within a narrow band, is trading at 41.0530 today, just above its previous close at the opening of the interbank market.

Analysts stated that a busy data agenda will be followed today, including foreign trade statistics and the economic confidence index domestically, and growth and core personal consumption expenditures abroad, particularly in the US. They noted that from a technical perspective, 11,300 and 11,200 points are support levels in the BIST 100 index, while 11,400 and 11,500 are resistance levels.

Here are the data to follow in the markets today:

10.00 Türkiye's foreign trade statistics for July

10.00 Türkiye, August economic confidence index

12.00 Eurozone, August consumer confidence index

12.00 Eurozone economic confidence index for August

14.30 Eurozone, ECB meeting minutes of July 23-24

14.30 Türkiye, weekly money and banking statistics

15.30 US, 2nd quarter Gross Domestic Product

15.30 US Q2 core personal consumption expenditures

3:30 PM US weekly jobless claims

5:00 PM US pending home sales for July