Lost season hits the table
While the economy's administration attributes the slowdown in disinflation to food prices, TÜİK data points to a much more dire situation for food prices during the winter months. TÜİK's agricultural product producer price index increased by 5.8 percent in September, representing an annual increase of 46.83 percent. Compared to the previous month, annual plant products saw increases of 5.10 percent, perennial plant products of 4.38 percent, and live animals and animal products of 3.42 percent across main groups. Annual increases in these groups were 29.62 percent, 88.19 percent, and 26.38 percent, respectively.
Farmers who entered the season with hailstorms suffered losses before being able to recoup their losses, then endured a drought-stricken harvest. The consequences of this lost season, which saw significant yield declines, are directly impacting people's tables. Agricultural writer Gazi Kutlu points out that every price increase experienced by producers will be felt as food inflation.
Kutlu, reminding that farmer inflation was 46.83 percent annually and 5.80 percent monthly, while food inflation was calculated at 36.06 percent annually and 4.62 percent monthly in September, said, “This table shows that every price increase experienced by producers will be painfully felt in food inflation in the coming months. Because every increase experienced in the fields today will directly affect prices on the table a few months later. We are emerging from a period of peak abundance, but the figures suggest the opposite. This shows that cost pressure in agriculture has become unbearable.”
Kutlu emphasized that a lack of planning is the fundamental problem in agriculture, saying, “Farmers are left to face rising input costs. Fuel, fertilizer, pesticides, seeds… all are expensive in foreign currency. Not to mention risks like agricultural frost. Simply saying ‘produce’ without reducing production costs won't cut it. If producers aren't supported, food inflation in this country won't fall. Every product on our tables today is actually the result of years of neglected agricultural policies.”
Kutlu emphasized that import-driven policies endanger the future, saying, “We can save the day with imports, but we lose tomorrow. Citizens will soon be unable to put as much food on the table as they do today. This increase in the agricultural PPI is a harbinger of a harsh winter. Even if you lower food prices today, we will continue to live with high food inflation for at least two more years. Because the problem isn't with prices, it's with the system. There's no planning or foresight in agriculture. This environment of uncertainty is impoverishing both producers and consumers simultaneously. For agriculture to recover, we need policies that plan for the future, not just save the day.”
BirGün
