Ruble Strengthening and Inflation Slowing in the US. Financial Market Review, May 13

The dollar fell by 34 kopecks, the euro by 42 kopecks. US inflation data for April looks mixed: the indicator continues to decline in annual terms, but in monthly dynamics prices remain stable

Currency

The Chinese yuan exchange rate fell on the Moscow Exchange during the trading session on May 13. By 19:00 Moscow time, the yuan exchange rate was 11.12 rubles, which is 3 kopecks lower than the closing level of the previous trades.

The official exchange rate of the US dollar against the ruble, announced by the Bank of Russia on May 14, decreased by 0.34 rubles and amounted to 80.55 rubles. The official exchange rate of the euro against the ruble, announced by the Bank of Russia on May 14, decreased by 0.42 rubles and amounted to 89.70 rubles.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation calculates official rates based on data from financial statements of credit institutions based on the results of interbank conversion transactions on the over-the-counter foreign exchange market.

On the global currency market, the dollar index against a basket of six major currencies DXY fell and by 20:30 Moscow time was around 101.1 points.

The pace of growth of the consumer price index in the United States in April was the slowest on an annual basis since the beginning of 2021, amounting to 2.3%, compared with 2.4% in March, according to data released by the country's Labor Department.

Experts expected this figure to remain unchanged at 2.4%. At the same time, in monthly terms, prices in April rose by 0.2% compared to a 0.1% decline in March.

Consumer prices excluding food and energy rose 0.2% last month compared to March and 2.8% year-on-year. Analysts had forecast increases of 0.3% and 2.8%, respectively. In March, the increase was 0.1% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year.

The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring consumer price inflation data, which is a key factor in its monetary policy decisions. Analysts and market participants generally believe the Fed will not cut interest rates before September, but still expect two 25 basis point cuts in 2025.

Stock

The main trading session on the Moscow Exchange ended with growth in the main indicators. The Moscow Exchange Index rose by 0.2% and closed at 2934 points. The RTS Index rose by 0.6% and ended the trading session at 1147 points.

The main indicators of the US stock market showed mixed dynamics in the first half of the trading session. By 20:30 Moscow time, the Dow Jones industrial index had fallen by 0.2%, the S&P 500 index had gained about 1%, and the NASDAQ-100 had grown by 1.9%.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts raised their year-end forecast for the S&P 500 to 6,100 from 5,900, citing a decline in trade tensions and the risk of a U.S. recession. Goldman expects the S&P 500 to be at 5,900 in three months. The 12-month forecast was raised to 6,500 from 6,200.

The bank's experts also lowered their estimate of the probability of a recession in the US to 35% from 45% and raised their forecast for US GDP growth in 2025 by 0.5 percentage points, to 1%.

Oil

Oil prices rose on the evening of May 13. The price of Brent oil futures contracts on the London ICE Futures exchange was around $67 per barrel by 20:30 Moscow time. The price of WTI oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange by this time was around $64 per barrel.