Trump has achieved his goal, the first country in the EU with zero inflation, and Polish wages are losing momentum
We've just finished the Fed's decision, a package of macroeconomic data from the Polish economy, and some interesting Eurostat data. Here's the week in charts.
The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower the federal funds rate range. This is the first rate cut by the US central bank this year. US President Donald Trump has been demanding such a move for months.
August's CPI inflation ultimately turned out to be slightly higher than initially reported. The increase in service prices, accompanied by a decline in fuel prices, remains unacceptably high.
August brought a return to the downward trend in core inflation in Poland, bringing this measure of price growth to its lowest level since January 2020. However, core prices are still rising faster than the NBP inflation target would allow.
In August 2025, Romania again recorded the highest HICP inflation among all European Union countries. But this time, the bigger sensation was the first zero inflation result in an EU country in many years.
August's Polish labor market statistics, just like in June, disappointed economists. Employment continues to decline, accompanied by a declining annual average wage growth in the corporate sector.
The Central Statistical Office data on August industrial production in Poland showed the expected slowdown in annual dynamics and a very clear decline on a monthly basis, which, however, resulted from calendar effects.
Nominal hourly labor costs in Poland increased by 9.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, following an 11.2% year-on-year increase in the first quarter and a 13.8% increase in the fourth quarter of 2024, Eurostat reported.
8. Housing prices are still creeping up. "Stabilization until at least the end of the year"
After four quarters of stable apartment transaction prices, there's no sign of any imminent change. According to the latest urban.one index, prices have only slightly fluctuated in the early third quarter of 2025.
9. Houses without permits are coming out of hiding. Most were less than 70 square meters.
In the first half of 2025, Poles began construction of 1,876 single-family homes based on notification, meaning they didn't need to apply for a building permit, according to data from the General Office of Building Control. This is the highest number in nine years. Most of these were small houses with an area of up to 70 square meters.
Recent weeks have seen a continuation of the improving trend in Polish consumer sentiment. Optimism extends not only to the current financial situation of households but also to the prospects for the entire country. A record-high propensity to save money is also significant.
prepared by KWS
bankier.pl
