The new president is preparing a tax offensive. These changes will be the first to be implemented.

• During his election campaign, Karol Nawrocki made numerous tax promises. One of the key projects, scheduled to be implemented immediately after his inauguration as President of the Republic of Poland, is a zero-income tax for families with two or more children. This could affect 2.6 million families in Poland.
• Nawrocki also intends to reduce the basic VAT rate from 23 to 22 percent and raise the second tax threshold from PLN 120,000 to PLN 140,000 annually.
• He also declared that he would not sign any bill raising taxes for "ordinary Poles".
• The new president's tax package means a loss of state revenue of at least several dozen billion zlotys.
• Economists believe that balancing such an amount is currently impossible, so the announced solutions may not be implemented.

On Friday, August 8, in Kolbuszowa in the Podkarpacie region, during a meeting with the town's residents, the newly sworn-in President of the Republic of Poland, Karol Nawrocki, is to present the details and schedule of his election tax program, as well as one of the ready-made drafts of the tax law , informed WNP, Karol Nawrocki's press spokesman, Dr. Rafał Leśkiewicz.

He added that the day before, i.e. on August 7 , President Nawrocki would present and submit a draft bill regarding the construction of the Central Communication Port.

Priority tax promises. Will these projects be submitted first?

Our interlocutor did not want to reveal which of the tax bills from his program the president would submit first, or whether the package would also include an increase in the tax-free amount to PLN 60,000 , which was an election promise of the Civic Coalition.

– President Nawrocki will fulfill all his election promises – only Leśkiewicz emphasized.

Our unofficial findings indicate that this project will most likely include a zero-income tax for families with two or more children . However, the package will not include an increase in the tax-free threshold to PLN 60,000.

On the website karolnawrocki2025.pl in the tab "Prosperity - more in the pockets of Poles" we can read, among other things, that Nawrocki was the first – on the day of his swearing-in (i.e. August 6) – to submit a project to reduce the VAT rate from 23% to 22% , and then a zero PIT for families with two or more children.

Nawrocki also pledges to raise the second tax threshold from the current PLN 120,000 to PLN 140,000 , eliminate the Belka tax, introduce family relief for entrepreneurs and " will not sign any tax increase for ordinary Poles."

The president's promises also include a one-third reduction in energy prices . To this end, funds obtained from green certificates (referring to certificates of origin for energy from renewable energy sources – editor's note) are to be allocated to lowering household bills, rather than, for example, subsidies for electric cars.

As PiS MP Janusz Kowalski emphasizes in an interview with WNP, the most important of the tax projects of the newly sworn-in president is to be a zero PIT for families with two children.

This is a pro-demographic relief that, alongside the 800+ benefit, is intended to encourage Polish families to have children. This is the second pillar of this system," Kowalski emphasizes.

Economists warn: such costs cannot be offset

Tax experts have estimated that fulfilling the president's promises could be very costly. A one-percentage-point VAT cut would result in a budget deficit of approximately PLN 15 billion (calculations based on the 2024 budget execution plus 10%).

In turn, the new tax relief for families with two or more children, where each parent earns no more than PLN 140,000 per year, would reduce budget revenues by another PLN 20 billion per year.

According to economists interviewed by WNP, the chances of implementing Nawrocki's tax projects are very slim .

BCC Chief Economist and former Deputy Minister of Finance, Professor Stanisław Gomułka, warns that widening the gap in state revenues while simultaneously burdening the government with already very high expenditures is a recipe for public finance disaster.

Gomułka reminds that according to the medium-term forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) , within 10 years the debt-to-GDP ratio in Poland may reach even 100% , which will have a colossal impact on the increase in debt servicing costs and the profitability of Polish treasury securities.

According to the professor, the reduction in the maximum VAT rate from 23 to 22 percent will not have as large an impact on market assessments as the medium-term VAT burden.

"These are very difficult political choices. I only hope that the financial situation won't deteriorate over the next two or three years due to purely political decisions," says Professor Gomułka.

In turn, according to Mariusz Zielonka, chief economist of the Lewiatan Confederation, there is no room in the Polish budget to implement President Nawrocki's fiscal promises and the ruling coalition will not allow them to be implemented.

– If there was room to reduce taxes, the government would reduce them itself – says the economist.

He also draws attention to the wording regarding vetoing tax bills, which only applies to "ordinary Poles".

According to the economist, this may be a sign that Nawrocki will not veto solutions that burden, for example, entrepreneurs or wealthy individuals .

However, Janusz Kowalski explains that the phrase "ordinary Poles" covers all natural persons, regardless of their income .

According to our interlocutor, the government should first seek funds to compensate for the budget losses that will result from the solutions proposed by Nawrocki among large corporations that avoid paying CIT and VAT.