The fiscal optimism trap

The presentation of the 2026 Revenue Package by the heads of the Treasury and the SAT (Tax Administration Service) at last Friday's morning press conference sought to convey confidence: there will be no new taxes or rate increases, oversight and digitalization will be strengthened, and the principle of "Mexican humanism" will be maintained. On paper, the figures appear encouraging: a real increase of 6.3% in revenue and a historic revenue collection equivalent to 15.1% of GDP. But behind the official optimism lies a structural problem that no government has been willing to address: Mexico collects very little.

The SAT report on federal revenues in 2025 shows that total resources amounted to 5.95 trillion pesos, 4.3% more than in 2024. Tax collection grew 3.3% and non-tax revenue 16.8%, with 77.8% of the annual target met as of September. Although the figures are positive, the strategy relied more on control and sanctions—such as the inclusion of "invoicing" in the list of serious crimes and the tightening of RFC and electronic signature verification—than on economic expansion measures.

In contrast, the 2026 Revenue Law proposes a broader policy: 8.72 trillion pesos in total revenue, 6.3% more in real terms, with tax revenues representing 15.1% of GDP. The Treasury maintains its position of not creating new taxes and bases its projection on three pillars: digital simplification, combating evasion, and tax incentives. The plan includes additional 25% deductions for training and innovation, an immediate 100% deduction of fixed assets, and facilities for SMEs with revenues up to 300 million pesos. Furthermore, Plan Mexico seeks to channel part of the revenue to social programs, infrastructure, health, and education.

In short, the SAT focuses on control, while the Treasury seeks to encourage formality. Both share an ambitious goal, but the underlying problem persists: with revenue equivalent to 15.1% of GDP, Mexico continues to collect less than the Latin American average (20%) and far below the OECD average (30%). With limited revenue, the Mexican state can hardly sustain its social spending, finance infrastructure, or improve public services.

The solution is not to raise taxes, but to reform the system with intelligence and a long-term vision. In 2026, the first step should focus on expanding the tax base. Informality, which affects 54% of the working population, can be reduced if the SAT transforms the Simplified Regime into a real path to integration, with automatic withholdings, QR invoices for micro-businesses, and coordination with the IMSS and Infonavit.

The Treasury Department and the SAT's discourse of continuity is insufficient. Mexico needs a tax reform that collects more without penalizing those with less and that spends better to deliver tangible results. Only then can it overcome its dependence on unstable revenues and move toward a modern, strong, and fair state.

To ensure this doesn't remain just promises, a timeline with responsible parties, goals, and public assessment is needed: 2026: Expand the base with digital tools; 2027: Targeted bimonthly VAT refunds; 2028: Income Tax.

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