OECD: Growth at 0.4% in the second quarter, but Italy in slight recession

The OECD economy saw a rebound in growth in the second quarter of 2025, with GDP rising 0.4% after 0.2% in the first three months of the year , according to estimates released today by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development . A similar trend was observed in the G7, where the pace of expansion increased from 0.1% to 0.4%.

The overall performance was driven primarily by the recovery in the United States , which grew by 0.7% after a 0.1% contraction in the spring, supported by a decline in goods imports and an adjustment in inventories. France and Japan posted more modest gains (both up 0.3%), while Great Britain slowed to +0.3% from +0.7% and Canada stopped at zero growth .

The picture is more challenging for continental Europe . Germany suffered a 0.3% decline in the quarter, mainly due to a decline in exports, while Italy recorded a 0.1% decline after a 0.3% increase in the first quarter.

On an annual basis, Italian GDP grew by 0.4%, slowing from 0.7% in the first three months. Overall, annual growth in the OECD area remained stable at 1.7%, with the United States leading the way (+2.0%) and Germany bringing up the rear (+0.2%). For Italy, this sign of weakness adds to the difficulties of an economic cycle struggling to consolidate, amidst a European context of low external demand and declining investment. The German slowdown further weighs on the outlook, while US growth demonstrates how trade dynamics can significantly impact national finances.