The Treasury cuts Mexico's economic projection for 2025-2026 due to global uncertainty.

Mexico's economic outlook for 2025 has taken an unexpected turn. The Ministry of Finance announced a cut in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast, now placing it between 0.5% and 1.5%, a one percentage point adjustment compared to April. This new estimate reflects the caution of Claudia Sheinbaum's administration in the face of an uncertain environment marked by external tensions and internal factors.

The 2026 Economic Package details that the cut is due to the need to balance the resilience of the domestic market, the dynamism of the external sector, and the investment projected for the second half of the year. The Mexican economy shows strength in domestic consumption and export sectors, although external challenges such as tariffs and investment flows remain.

The Treasury's adjustment contrasts with previous projections. Banxico, for example, had estimated a minimum growth of 0.1% for 2025, later adjusted to 0.6% and now reduced to 0.4%. Surveys of the private sector and Banamex also reflect skepticism, demonstrating that economic recovery will not be immediate and that the government's optimism faces significant challenges.

The projected growth has direct implications. If the economy remains at a pace close to 0.4%, productive investment and formal job creation could stagnate. However, exceeding 1% growth would open up opportunities to strengthen the domestic market and consolidate Mexico as a strategic destination for nearshoring, generating a positive boost in investment and employment.

The Treasury proposes two scenarios. Growth below 0.5% would limit fiscal resources, affecting revenues, minimum wage, and tax collection. Conversely, growth above 1% would allow the government to promote infrastructure projects, expand social programs, and foster formal employment, consolidating a favorable environment for national economic development.