Stability of the oil sector in the face of geopolitical tension

In June, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated, with immediate repercussions on oil prices.

Since Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, WTI has risen from $63 to $73 a barrel, and Brent from $67 to $74.

The Iranian response further heightened tensions, keeping prices at around $75 and $76, respectively.

On June 22, the United States intervened directly with bombings of Iranian nuclear infrastructure, and the following day Iran responded with missiles fired at a US base in Qatar, causing no serious damage.

The conflict began to cool after Donald Trump announced peace and threatened sanctions if Iran resumed its nuclear program. With that, the geopolitical risk dissipated, and oil prices rebounded sharply: WTI fell to $68 and Brent to $69 a barrel, wiping out up to 10% of their value in one day.

Much of these fluctuations in crude oil prices were attributed to Iran's threats, both direct and implicit, of a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil transits. A disruption in this strategic zone could immediately disrupt 10 to 15% of the global crude oil supply.

During the conflict's most sensitive days, signs of tension were evident: evasive ship maneuvers, traffic jams in cargo corridors, high ocean freight costs, and skyrocketing insurance premiums for oil tankers crossing the region.

However, once maritime traffic stability was confirmed, with no further attacks reported, shipping rates plummeted 17% in a single day. This logistical normalization accelerated the correction in crude oil prices, eliminating much of the geopolitical premium that had accumulated during the conflict.

With the immediate risk dissipated, the market has returned to focusing on fundamental factors.

Despite recent tensions, Iranian crude oil exports to China remain active, and although not channeled through formal channels, they represent an effective supply in the global market.

At the same time, expectations of an oversupply are gaining strength in the second half of the year.

While U.S. inventories have declined for five consecutive weeks, reaching seasonal lows not seen in more than a decade, the market is anticipating a possible increase in production by OPEC+.

Russia has already expressed its willingness to support a further upward adjustment at the July 6 meeting, if the alliance so decides.

This potential shift in supply policy occurs in an environment where global demand is showing signs of weakness, and where the seasonal summer surge could act only as temporary support before the crude oil surplus becomes more evident.

For this summer, the crude oil price outlook has been revised downward. A downward trend is anticipated, with prices likely to range between $63 and $67 per barrel at the start of the season, gradually weakening as the quarter progresses, as the seasonal demand momentum dissipates and the increase in supply materializes.

However, the most interesting aspect of the episode was not the performance of crude oil, but the strength of the major international oil companies.

As oil prices tumbled up and down, stocks in companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies, and BP remained relatively stable.

There were no speculative surges or abrupt collapses. The reason is simple: they are deeply diversified, vertically integrated companies with global operations across all stages of the chain, from exploration to distribution, and with solid balance sheets that allow them to withstand short-term shocks.

From an investment perspective, this behavior offers a clear interpretation: integrated oil companies are not speculative bets, but rather resilient equity vehicles.

In contexts of high geopolitical uncertainty, they act more as safe havens than risk assets. Their cash flow generation capacity, even in moderate price scenarios, makes them a long-term defensive option.

In conclusion, the recent escalation between Israel, Iran, and the United States demonstrated that oil prices are sensitive to political volatility, but also that the market is capable of quickly adjusting its approach when disruption fails to materialize.

Furthermore, it confirmed that the fundamentals continue to prevail: excess supply, pent-up demand, and an OPEC+ economy that will define the course for the second half of the year.

Amid all this, publicly traded major oil companies maintained their value, reinforcing their role as reliable investment instruments in an uncertain global environment.