Inflation accelerates to 2.2% in June due to fuel prices

Inflation has broken three consecutive months of declines, rising two-tenths of a percentage point in June compared to May. According to a preliminary figure that the National Statistics Institute (INE) is expected to confirm in two weeks, the CPI stood at 2.2% year-on-year (compared to the same month last year), a percentage that, in any case, is within the European Central Bank's (ECB) margin for considering rising prices as safe.

Statistics have justified the increase primarily due to fuel prices , compared to the drop experienced in June 2024. Indeed, fuel has become more expensive this month. Specifically, 95-grade gasoline has gone from around €1.4 per liter to €1.5 at the end of June, and diesel A, from €1.3 to €1.4. The backdrop to this evolution, logically, is the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East and the price of a barrel of Brent oil—the benchmark in Europe—although it should be noted that the price of Brent oil at a given time is not directly reflected in consumer prices that month, as the "black gold," after being sold in barrels, must go through a manufacturing process to become the gasoline that reaches gas stations.

In any case, Brent does serve as an indicator of performance, and its price influences expectations for energy companies, which this month have been closely focused on the Middle East crisis . Brent began June at around $66, but on the tenth day of the month began an upward trend that took it to $79. The fear at that time, and even more so after the US bombing of Iran last weekend, was that Tehran would close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes, and push prices above $100.

However, that didn't happen, according to analysts, because for the Persian nation it would have been a blow to its own economy—and would anger China, which needs Hormuz oil—so the price of a barrel of Brent crude returned to around $67.

The price of oil is volatile by nature, just like that of gas, electricity, and unprocessed food. That's why the INE offers what it calls "core inflation," which is the CPI that excludes these elements from the analysis to offer a more "structural" view of price trends. In June, core inflation was at the same level as the general rate, at 2.2%.

Beyond fuel, the INE (National Institute of Statistics and Census) has also justified the rise in the CPI—albeit to a lesser extent—by increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages, which were higher in June than in the same month last year. As ABC previously explained, in the first five months of the year, this package has increased by 2%, six-tenths of a percentage point more than the figure for January-May 2024 (1.3%).