Ukraine: A desperate offer

It sounded like a far-reaching offer when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to resign if this was necessary for peace in Ukraine - adding: "I can exchange my position for NATO membership if that is what it takes, and I can do it immediately." Before EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and several other prominent supporters of Ukraine arrived in Kyiv by train on Monday morning, Zelensky gave a press conference. Things were looking very bad for Ukraine at that point.

Not only had Washington presented Kyiv with a draft agreement that would oblige Ukraine to hand over raw materials and revenues worth 500 billion dollars to the USA or to transfer ownership of the corresponding deposits. And this despite claims by US President Donald Trump that 350 billion dollars in aid had already been provided, the USA has actually only sent 120 billion dollars in weapons and money to Kyiv so far, as the Ukraine support tracker of the Kiel Institute for International Economics shows.

As if to worsen the Ukrainian president's mood even further, Steve Witkoff told CNN that Washington had come "very far" towards an agreement with Russia over Ukraine . So far that "we were very close to signing something" during the US-Russia talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The real estate billionaire was appointed by Trump as a negotiator with Moscow instead of the actual Ukraine-Russia envoy Keith Kellogg and had already traveled to Moscow in early February for a secret meeting with Russian ruler Vladimir Putin .

This agreement, said Witkoff, will be based on the so-called Istanbul Protocol, the ultimately unsuccessful negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul in the first months of the war from February to April 2022. The key points of the draft agreement published by the New York Times on April 15, 2022, were comprehensive neutrality and limited sovereignty for Ukraine, a renunciation of NATO membership, and a Ukrainian mini-army.

Witkoff, a business partner and friend of the US president for decades, added that Ukraine's possible NATO membership had "actually become a threat to the Russians, and so we have to take that into account." The talks finally failed in 2022, among several other disagreements, after Russia's war crimes, such as in Bucha and Irpin, came to light. But Moscow has since repeatedly insisted that a possible peace agreement could only be reached if Russian conquests were recognized, if Kyiv renounced NATO membership, and even if the NATO invitation to Ukraine was officially withdrawn.

It was against this backdrop of Ukraine's NATO membership becoming unrealistic, at least under US President Trump, that Zelensky, when asked by a journalist whether he was prepared to resign for peace, responded sarcastically and with obvious annoyance: "If it means peace for Ukraine, if they really want me to give up my post - I'm ready." This was followed by the sentence about NATO membership. Moscow's deputy foreign minister again insisted on Monday that Ukraine's NATO membership must be ruled out.

In view of the situation, Zelensky placed his hopes primarily on Europe in his evening video address on Sunday evening. "Security guarantees unite the vast majority. Europe, America and all our partners in the world need a common understanding of how to ensure that Putin can never again betray anyone and that Russia can no longer bring war to other nations, from Ukraine and Europe to Syria, the Middle East and Africa." And, the Ukrainian president continued: "The blame lies with Russia, with its army, its secret services, its mercenaries."

One bright spot on the horizon for Ukraine is that, according to Zelensky, the arms deliveries to Ukraine promised by Washington will continue. "15 billion dollars are still on the way," he said at his press conference. However, the weapons promised so far will not last long. General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy chief of the Ukrainian General Staff, told Al Jazeera at the Munich Security Conference that Europe cannot replace America today. Without more US weapons, Ukraine will only "survive for six months." Mike Johnson, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, ruled out that there would be another law to support Ukraine under the Trump administration.

Against this background, Zelensky said that if Ukraine did not join NATO, Kiev's other supporters should be prepared to finance the Ukrainian army. According to the London Institute for Strategic Studies, the army currently has around 800,000 men. Of course, weapons would also have to be provided in the medium and long term, such as the Patriot air defense system, which only the USA can currently supply.

Regarding the negotiations with the USA on the raw materials agreement, Zelensky said in a dig at Trump that he did not see Ukraine's debt of 500 billion dollars, "no matter what anyone says". "I will not sign anything that ten generations of Ukrainians would have to pay back." His parliamentary speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk announced last Friday in an interview with Japanese television NHK that a working group would be set up to deal with the raw materials agreement. According to the Ukrainian information service NV , Zelensky's chief of staff Andriy Yermak and Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko will also continue negotiations with Washington.