Why are chocolate Easter eggs so expensive this year?

With the first bank holiday of the year finally upon us this Easter weekend, shoppers hunting the season's essential chocolate eggs may have felt a little short-changed.

Egg hunters have faced widespread shrinkflation, with many Easter eggs sold at major UK supermarkets at higher prices and in smaller sizes.

Research from Which? found a Twix white chocolate Easter egg at Tesco had risen from £5 to £6 while shrinking from 316 grams to 258 grams, equivalent to a 47 per cent increase in its unit price.

Britons who prefer Terry's chocolate orange mini eggs from Lidl must now pay £1.35, instead of 99p last year, for a pouch that is 10g smaller at 70g, meaning the unit price has soared by 56 per cent.

The situation is only slightly better at other grocers, with unit prices for the same mini eggs up 51 per cent at Asda, 37 per cent at Sainsbury's and 14 per cent at Tesco.

While other products have not decreased in size, they are still far costlier; a five-pack of mixed 200g Cadbury Creme Eggs sold at Morrisons was £2.62 in 2024 but is now £4 this year.

Consumers would be well advised to shop around, but there is only so much bargain hunting one can achieve in a market where costs have spiralled.

It is the second consecutive year retailers have been selling Easter eggs at much higher prices, following considerable volatility in the cocoa market.

While cocoa futures have slumped by about a third from a record $12,646 per metric ton in mid-December last year to $8,470, they have more than trebled since January 2023.

Prices started gradually increasing two years ago before shooting up during the start of 2024, reflecting a drop in production levels.

Analysts have largely blamed the decline on climate change affecting Ghana and the Ivory Coast, the countries responsible for most of the world's cocoa output.

Cocoa's optimal growing conditions are warm, moderate temperatures with high humidity, shade to protect from harsh winds, sunlight, and significant - but not excessive - rainfall.

Yet in 2023, cocoa plants started rotting after extreme rainfall in West Africa - over double the 30-year average - incited an outbreak of black pod disease.

At the same time, the swollen shoot virus swept through the area's forests, destroying almost a third of cocoa-growing land in Ghana alone, according to a nationwide survey.

Problems were worsened by the El Nino phenomenon instigating a drought and an extremely humid heatwave the following year.

As the Climate Intelligence Unit said in a recent report: 'In short, West African farmers went from having far too much rain to not enough, all under oppressively hot temperatures, which affected the sowing, growing and harvesting of cocoa crops.'

Compounding these issues has been miners buying up cocoa plantations to illegally extract gold - a practice known in Ghana as 'galamsey'.

Global cocoa output consequently dropped by 13 per cent to 4.5 million metric tonnes in the 2023/24 season, the International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) estimated.

In addition, the global cocoa deficit was -441,000 metric tonnes, the largest in over six decades, while the cocoa stocks/grindings ratio - a predictor of cocoa prices - was at a 46-year low of 27 per cent, indicating a massive shortfall.

Although the ICCO forecasts cocoa production to rebound to around 4.8mmt in the 2024/25 season, that does not mean prices of your favourite Easter egg will start to fall next year.

Dirk Van de Put, chief executive of Cadbury owner Mondelez, told a conference in February that consumers will need to get used to chocolate that is up to 50 per cent more expensive 'because that's what we're going to see'.

Soon afterwards, the finance boss of Lindt & Sprüngli, Martin Hug, said his business would boost prices by a double-digit percentage this year to offset high cocoa costs.

The premium chocolatier has already hiked prices by 30 per cent over the past three years, including by 6.3 per cent in 2024.

However, firms should beware of putting up prices too much; Nestlé raised them by just 1.5 per cent last year - versus 7.5 per cent in 2023 - after noticing some shoppers were opting for more affordable brands.

As a result, the Swiss conglomerate behind Kit Kat, Maltesers and Nesquik saw its organic sales expand by only 2.2 per cent in 2024, compared to 7.2 per cent the previous year.

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, has said companies like Nestlé 'are now in the sticky situation of facing a fresh rise in input costs for key ranges with little wiggle room to put up prices'.

She added: 'Consumers have already shown signs of drifting away to cheaper alternatives or are simply buying fewer of their favourite bars.'

But even financially stretched confectionery lovers might cut back further if firms choose to pass on the cost of recently introduced tariffs.

Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump imposed a 10 per cent baseline tariff on all US goods imports, destabilising markets and increasing the threats of a global recession.

He also brought in 'reciprocal' tariffs, including a 21 per cent duty on products from the Ivory Coast, before suspending them hours later for 90 days.

Authorities in the African country, which exports around 200,000 to 300,000 metric tons annually to the US, have warned that the measures could lift cocoa prices even higher.

In turn, production costs at American chocolate companies would spike, with the knock-on effect of retailers increasing their prices.

Even if the Ivory Coast were to escape future import taxes, Lale Akoner, global market analyst at eToro, has warned that incoming environmental regulations pose additional issues.

From December 2025, large and medium-sized businesses importing cocoa into the European Union must prove the crop comes from a deforestation-free region or risk fines and import restrictions.

Research by Rabobank last year estimated that the costs of complying with just the due diligence obligations of the new system would total between 0.29 per cent and 4.3 per cent of the value of imports.

And that is before the expenses from helping suppliers adapt their supply chains to be absent of deforestation.

Given the other crises impacting chocolate makers, next year's Easter could become even more challenging for them to deliver affordable Easter eggs for confectionery-mad Britons.

'As consumers continue to embrace holiday traditions, the chocolate industry faces a complex landscape shaped by rising tariffs and economic pressures,' said Akoner.

'Their ability to adapt will be crucial in maintaining the balance between delivering cherished holiday treats and managing economic realities.'