Thousands more DWP claimants could lose PIP than government expects, report finds

Recent reports have shed light on the potential impact of impending changes to Personal Independence Payment (PIP) eligibility, with a government impact assessment indicating that by 2030, around 370,000 people might receive a reduced award or lose their benefits entirely.

However, a new supplementary report by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) suggests as many as 430,000 people could forfeit the daily living component of PIP by the end of this decade.

With current PIP rates, the loss of the enhanced daily living component could mean an average annual loss of £4,500 per person. Even losing the standard rate of £73.90 weekly would represent a substantial financial hit. The Government's analysis posits that their estimate of 370,000 equates to only one in ten claimants being impacted.

However, this figure takes into account approximately 700,000 pensioners who are currently PIP recipients, whom the government assured would not be affected by the welfare changes.

The OBR's assessment excludes these protected pensioners and concentrates on those without such safeguards who will face reassessments. Their findings indicate that one in four of these claimants could be adversely affected.

The OBR's report states: "We expect 1.64 million PIP claimants will have an award review between November 2026 and March 2030. Of these, we expect roughly a quarter (430,000) will lose their daily living award as a result of the tightened criteria.

"We expect the net impact of these additional disallowals on the caseload to be 390,000 by March 2030, as 40,000 of those disallowed due to the policy would have subsequently left the caseload later in the forecast period."

Should the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payments Bill, set for debate by MPs on July 1, come into effect, it will begin influencing both new and existing claimants from next November.

The Bill specifically targets the daily living component of PIP via the assessment process, which today mandates that individuals obtain a minimum of eight points across ten activities to qualify. Scores are awarded based on the level of support or equipment required by claimants to safely and effectively complete tasks.

In a significant shift, starting from November 2026, claimants must also achieve a score of four points in at least one category. This amendment implies that applicants must be more significantly impacted by their conditions to qualify than under current guidelines.

An earlier DWP assessment this year examined the number of current beneficiaries who do not meet the impending criteria. Sir Stephen Timms shared in a written statement that, among the 18 most common conditions claimed for PIP, individuals with back pain, arthritis, and regional musculoskeletal disorders were the most likely to not meet the new criteria.

An estimated 79% of recipients suffering from back pain, 77% of those with arthritis, and 71% with regional musculoskeletal conditions would be ineligible under the new system, by contrast only 3% of people with learning disabilities failed to satisfy the increased eligibility.