The danger of drought in agriculture! "Prices will skyrocket"

Ümit Ayduğan, a farmer in the Alaca district of Çorum, spoke to Pelin Ünker of DW Turkish about the impact of the drought. Ayduğan said, “We can't get any yield from wheat, sunflowers, or chickpeas. Our yield has halved compared to last year. Our input costs have increased by 100 percent, but our crop is only gaining around 30 percent in value. This is causing us losses.”

Ayduğan says he's worried about next year, unable to get the seeds he wanted and unable to cover fertilizer and maintenance costs. "Support that isn't paid on time doesn't count as support," he says. "Farmers end up in debt, either to banks, cooperatives, or loan sharks; they're planting on credit," he says, voicing the pressure on producers.

DAMS HAVE DROPPED TO CRITICAL LEVEL, LAKES ARE DRYING UP

With decreasing rainfall in various regions of Türkiye, dam occupancy rates have plummeted. In Bursa, the Nilüfer Dam has completely dried up, while the Doğancı Dam has fallen to 19 percent occupancy. In İzmir, the Tahtalı Dam's water level has dropped below 7 percent.

The average dam occupancy rate nationwide has fallen to 42 percent. This figure was 53 percent during the same period last year. Wetlands like Lake Burdur and Lake Akşehir have also experienced significant decline, with some lakes completely drying up.

DISASTERS CREATE A CHAIN ​​EFFECT

Baki Remzi Suiçmez, President of the TMMOB Chamber of Agricultural Engineers, stated that drought, as well as frost, hail, floods, storms, earthquakes, and fires, negatively impact agricultural production. He said, “This process has a cascading effect not only on farmers but also on consumers and exporters. When a supply deficit occurs, food supply shrinks, prices rise, and access to healthy food becomes more difficult.”

Sharp decline in crop production

According to TurkStat's preliminary estimates for 2025, production of grains and other plant products will decrease by 4.1 percent. Vegetables are projected to decline by 1.7 percent, and fruits, beverages, and spices by 24.4 percent.

Wheat production is expected to decline by 5.8 percent, barley by 8 percent, and oats by 23.1 percent. Potato production is expected to decline by 13 percent, hazelnuts by 27.5 percent, and pistachios by 54.6 percent. Significant declines are also expected for apples by 38.7 percent, cherries by 55.7 percent, grapes by 18.6 percent, and apricots by 18.6 percent.

CONCRETE MEASURES MUST BE IMPLEMENTED IMMEDIATELY

Suiçmez emphasized the need for a structural transformation in agricultural policies, saying, "The Agricultural Drought Combat Strategy should not remain on paper. Modern irrigation systems must be implemented, drought-resistant seeds must be expanded, and agricultural insurance must be strengthened."

PROTECTING WATER RESOURCES IS VITAL

TZOB President Şemsi Bayraktar highlighted the pressure of pollution amid the drought. Recalling that factory waste in the Mudurnu River has poisoned agricultural land, Bayraktar said, "Heavy sanctions must be imposed on those who pollute nature."

FOOD INFLATION IS UNDER RISING PRESSURE

According to TurkStat data, food inflation was recorded at 27.95 percent in July 2025. ENAG calculated the rate at 65.15 percent. The FAO Food Price Index also reached 130.1 points in July, its highest level since February 2023.

Economist Oğuz Demir said that rising input costs and drought over the last four or five years have pushed food prices to record levels. He warned, "We may see a resurgence in food prices after September."

“WARNING IS NOT ENOUGH, KEEPING PRODUCTION SUSTAINED IS A MUST”

Suiçmez stated that he found the Central Bank's attention to agricultural frost and drought in its inflation report significant, but insufficient. He said, "Fuel, seed, fertilizer, and irrigation support should be increased, and payments should be made on time. Additional disaster support programs should be implemented immediately."

Source: DW Turkish