Global markets are uncertain

The impact of the US tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are leading to mixed market activity. While US tariff-related actions have increased market volatility globally, concerns about a potential confrontation between the US and Russia have dampened the positive sentiment felt since the beginning of the week. Answering questions from the press about the Russia-Ukraine process at a signing ceremony in the Oval Office, Trump said of what would happen if the deadline he granted Putin expires, “That’s up to him. We’ll see what he says. (So far) I’ve been disappointed.”

Preparations for the Trump-Putin meeting have begun

Following reports of a potential meeting between the two leaders, Kremlin Foreign Policy Advisor Yuriy Ushakov announced that an agreement had been reached for a meeting between Putin and Trump in the coming days and that preparations had begun. Hosting UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan at the Kremlin, Putin suggested that the United Arab Emirates might be a suitable venue for his meeting with Trump.

CUSTOMS TARIFFS AND THE SEARCH FOR SAFE HARBOR

Analysts say the ongoing impact of US tariffs on the global economy and rising tensions between the US and Russia could influence investor decisions and increase demand for safe-haven assets.

NEW APPOINTMENTS AND EXPECTATIONS OF EASING AT THE FED

Trump announced his nomination of Stephen Miran, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, to replace Adriana Kugler, who is leaving the Fed Board. Miran is expected to serve until January 31, 2026. Following Trump's statements, which indicated that the search for a permanent candidate is ongoing, Christopher Waller, who has been considered for the Fed chair, remains a topic of discussion. Known for his pronouncements favoring interest rate cuts, Waller is expected to shift his focus to loose monetary policies if elected.

FED OFFICIALS' COMMENTS AND MACRO DATA

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that there should be some doubt about whether the inflationary effects of the tariffs will be temporary, and that only one interest rate cut is likely this year. In the US, unemployment benefits applications rose to 226,000, exceeding expectations. Nonfarm labor productivity rose by 2.4 percent in the second quarter, while unit labor costs rose by 1.6 percent. The Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that short-term inflation expectations rose to 3.1 percent in July.

Volatility in chip and technology stocks in the US

Trump's announcement that imports of chips and semiconductors would face tariffs of nearly 100 percent, but that these tariffs would not apply to companies committed to manufacturing in the U.S., led to a surge in technology stocks. Nvidia shares rose 0.8 percent, Broadcom 0.7 percent, and AMD 5.7 percent, while Apple's shares rose 3.2 percent after announcing a new $100 billion investment. However, following Trump's call for Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan to resign, the company's shares fell 3.1 percent.

US MARKET DATA AND GOLD-OIL PRICES

Bond markets were dominated by buying, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.24 percent. The dollar index, after weakening in the last two trading days, fell 0.2 percent to 98 but is currently up 0.1 percent at 98.2. The price of gold per ounce rose 0.8 percent to $3,396 on expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. Brent crude is currently at $66.1 a barrel. In the US, the S&P 500 fell 0.08 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.51 percent, and the Nasdaq rose 0.35 percent. Futures contracts opened the new day positive.

AGENDA ON EUROPEAN STOCK EXCHANGES: BOE INTEREST RATE DECISION AND GEOPOLITICAL CONCERNS

European stock markets, excluding the UK, followed a buying-heavy trend. The Bank of England (BoE) cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4%. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that the interest rate path has become uncertain and that temporary increases in inflation are possible. The UK's FTSE 100 index fell 0.69%, while Germany's DAX 40 rose 1.12%, France's CAC 40 rose 0.97%, and Italy's FTSE MIB 30 rose 0.93%. Index futures contracts in Europe opened the day positively.

FOCUS ON ASIAN MARKETS: TRADE TALKS WITH THE US

Asian stock markets are mixed. Japan's trade talks with the US are being closely watched. Ryosei Akazawa, Japan's chief tariff negotiator, called for reciprocity-based tariff arrangements and a reduction in auto tariffs during meetings with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington. The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) summary of the meeting revealed that the Japanese economy is recovering moderately, but risks remain due to global developments. There were also signals that the BOJ may abandon its "wait-and-see" approach towards the end of the year. Household spending in Japan increased by 1.3% year-over-year in June but decreased by 5.2% month-over-month.

RISE IN THE ISTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE

The BIST 100 index on Borsa Istanbul closed yesterday at 10,956.05 points, up 0.50 percent. The August futures contract based on the BIST 30 index on the VIOP (Istanbul Derivatives Exchange) traded flat at 12,371 points. The USD/TRY exchange rate closed at 40.6060 yesterday, down 0.1 percent, and is trading today at 40.7030, up 0.2 percent.

EXPECTED DATA AND TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Analysts say that the domestic market will be watching the real returns on financial investment instruments for July today, while China's second-quarter current account balance will be closely watched internationally. From a technical perspective, resistance levels on the BIST 100 index stand at 11,000 and 11,100 points, while support levels stand at 10,900 and 10,800 points.

Data to be followed today include the July real return rates, which will be announced in Türkiye at 10:00 a.m., and China's second-quarter current account balance at 12:00 p.m.