China's economy grew despite Trump

China’s economy grew by 5.3 percent in the first half of 2025, according to official data released on July 15. However, ongoing trade tensions with the United States slowed momentum in the second quarter. The gross domestic product (GDP) figure for the first half of 2025, released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, is broadly in line with the government’s full-year growth target of “around 5 percent.” After a strong start to the year with 5.4 percent growth in the first quarter, growth slowed to 5.2 percent in the second quarter due to trade tensions and the prolonged housing crisis. China has so far managed to overcome the sudden downturn, thanks to the signing of a fragile trade truce with the United States in mid-May and the government’s policy support. But analysts warn that the second half of 2025 could be more challenging as exports lose momentum and consumer confidence remains low. June trade figures rose after tariffs were postponed. Tariffs on Chinese goods were cut from 145% to 55%. Exporters rushed to ship orders before the August deadline, giving trade a temporary boost. “Overall, exports performed better than most forecasters expected in the first half of the year, contributing to first-half GDP that comfortably exceeded the rather pessimistic forecasts at the beginning of the year,” Lynn Song, ING’s chief economist for Greater China, said in a note to clients on July 14. Experts say heightened external uncertainties due to the U.S.-China trade war could put pressure on policymakers to implement additional stimulus to support growth.