What will happen to potato prices: expert gives answer

According to Rosstat, deflation has been observed for fruit and vegetable products for four weeks in a row, in particular, everyone's favorite potatoes have fallen in price by 21%. However, prices in trade are still quite high - new potatoes are 60 rubles per kilogram, washed potatoes packaged in a net of 2.5 kilograms - 229 rubles. What will be the prices for the "second bread" from the beginning of the mass harvesting campaign?

In 2024, potatoes became the leader in price increases, prices grew by 92%. At the beginning of this spring, with old stocks, the cost of a kilogram reached 130-150 rubles. Today, one can say, it has let go: young potatoes from the south of Russia cost up to 50 rubles a kilo.

Should we expect a further decline and by how much? We remember 2022-23 as a sweet dream, when tubers in the store were stably at 17-19 rubles. Of course, everything depends on the harvest, for which farmers have already begun to fight in the fields.

Head of the Selection Department of the Federal Research Center of Potatoes named after Lorkh, Doctor of Agricultural Sciences, Professor Evgeny Simakov believes that the gross yield of tubers in Russia will remain at the level of last year, in the region of 7.5 million tons.

- But last year it was not enough for retail trade. We remember what happened with prices, there were large import purchases. Will the situation repeat itself this year?

- It is impossible to say that there will be a high harvest. Let's remember the cold spring, then the rains in many regions, when the plantations were flooded. Therefore, we should not expect a significant reduction in the price of potatoes, the year is not very favorable. Moreover, the harvest still needs to be stored until spring, and we have problems with storage facilities. In the spring, "potato" diseases were recorded: resoctonia - black scab - and today late blight - especially in the Central zone, where a good harvest was grown.

There is nothing to be happy about, but there is no reason to worry either. The Far East, where the yields of tubers are traditionally low, will consume the “second bread” from China or Pakistan. And Central Russia will provide for itself. There will be no shortage. There will be no more problems than in any other year.

Besides, we have basically moved away from the large consumption of potatoes, from its dependence in the structure of nutrition. In Russia, not 100 kilograms per year per capita are consumed, as before, but about 55. So the harvested crop will be enough for us to eat with a reserve.

- But citizens are interested in prices. After their incredible growth last year, what to expect today and tomorrow?

- Judging by the mood of the producers, they intend to sell potatoes from the field for no less than 50 rubles per kilogram. If so, then in stores it will be 80 and higher. But 50 rubles is their "wants" for now. At the early stage of harvesting, farmers always raise prices, and then the market makes them win back. I believe that potatoes from the field will go for 30 per kilo, but in this case on the shelf it will cost 50-60 rubles.

There is another problem here. When there was overproduction in 2022-23, tubers from the field were sold at collapsed prices - 4-5 rubles per kilo - and many producers stopped planting them due to unprofitable production. They retrained in potato processing. Now there is not enough for processing tubers. In this industry, the requirements for quality and biochemistry are very strict, even higher than in retail chains. It may have to be purchased from imports, in Kazakhstan.

- What will the prices be by the end of the year?

- I believe that in December it will be no less than 60 rubles per kilogram.

- And in the fall? The mass cleaning hasn't even started yet...

- In September, I believe, the cheapest will be around 45-50 rubles. Many producers do not have storage facilities, they will make deliveries directly from the field, there will be a lot of potatoes, and the prices will be minimal. Those who make stocks for the winter, it is better to make purchases in September. Because from October the harvest will come from storage facilities, and it will be more expensive than from the field. In any case, it is necessary to keep in mind that potatoes will not be as cheap as before.

- What has changed?

- It is grown using modern world technologies, which provide high yields. I remember that in Soviet times, agronomists knew traditional technology, row spacing and other details by heart. Now it is the cave age. Western technologies provide a very high yield, but everything is regulated there - what agricultural machinery should be involved in planting, what in harvesting, when to apply fertilizers and plant protection products... All this, of course, is Western-made, very expensive. And there are no direct deliveries today, everything is done indirectly due to sanctions, which further inflates prices.

Here you have the price of the issue, the high cost price. Even China cannot help us in this regard.

- Nevertheless, potatoes are a strategic product, and the state monitors prices...

- You can restrict them as much as you like administratively, but the production itself will not become cheaper, and farmers will not sell the harvest at a loss. There are not many potato producers left due to low prices in 2022-23.