Tenants are waiting for discounts: what awaits the rental market in 2025

In September, the national long-term rental market saw its supply double that of September 2024. Experts believe this trend has not peaked, and rental housing supply will continue to grow by the end of the year.

As per long-standing tradition, average rates in the Russian long-term rental market reach their highest levels in September. However, this year, by the end of the first month of autumn, rental apartments in a number of major cities across the country actually fell in price. Due to the collapse in demand for new buildings following the abolition of mass preferential mortgages, many private investors who purchased new apartments decided to rent them out to generate passive income. Due to the sharply increased competition, landlords were forced to moderate their appetites.

According to Konstantin Kamenev, Head of Long-Term Rentals at Avito Real Estate, the supply of long-term rental apartments across Russia has increased by 35% year-on-year. The number of budget-friendly rentals has increased the most in Lipetsk and Tula, doubling year-on-year. In Stavropol, this figure has grown by 85%, while in Chelyabinsk and Izhevsk, it has increased by 74% and 70%, respectively.

"An increase in the number of listings, even during the traditionally high season, is a positive development for renters," the analyst noted. He believes that the greater the choice on the market, the lower the likelihood of a shortage of inventory and, consequently, price increases in popular locations. "While a year ago, by the end of summer and beginning of fall, a landlord's market had formed, with even expensive options quickly filling up, now the situation is the opposite—in most places, renters can easily choose from several decent options," Kamenev noted.

Over the past third quarter, one-bedroom apartments saw the most significant price declines in Yakutsk (-7.7%), Novokuznetsk (-7%), Sochi (-6.5%), Kaliningrad (-5.1%), and Khabarovsk (-2.6%), according to Pavel Lutsenko, CEO of the Mir Kvartir portal. According to him, two-bedroom apartments saw the most significant price declines from July to September in Yakutsk (-9.1%), Sochi (-9%), Vladivostok (-6.7%), Kaliningrad (-5.9%), and Novokuznetsk (-5.7%). Three-bedroom rental apartments saw the most significant price declines in Novokuznetsk (-10.8%), Kurgan (-9.3%), Magnitogorsk (-9.1%), Makhachkala (-7.2%), and cities in the Leningrad Region (-6.6%).

"The rental market is currently experiencing its usual autumn recovery: supply is shrinking, and rates are gradually rising. However, this growth is nowhere near as strong as last year, when the market was restructuring after the abolition of the broad preferential mortgage program for new-builds," Lutsenko noted. He expects a slight decline in activity in the fourth quarter.

The total supply of rental housing in the market could reach 282 million square meters in 2025, an increase of 12.4% year-on-year, according to a study by Expert RA. The continued growth in rental housing supply will contribute to its growth in the Russian Federation's total housing stock. While this figure stood at 6.4% in 2024, according to the rating agency's calculations, it will reach 7% in 2025. By 2030, this figure could increase to 10%. Experts explain the growing popularity of rental housing simply: due to the decline in mortgage affordability in 2024, many citizens began to forego purchasing their own homes. Consequently, demand has shifted toward the long-term rental market.

But even if this bold forecast comes true, this figure will lag significantly behind other countries. For example, in Switzerland (see chart), 62% of apartments are rented, in Germany – 55%, in the UK – 31%, in Canada – 30%, and in Italy – 20%. So, the national rental housing market has room to grow.

Published in the Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper, No. 29617, September 30, 2025

Newspaper headline: Tenants wait for discounts