Qatar threatens to cut off Europe's gas supply: what's in Russia's interests?

On the eve of the new heating season, Europe risks losing another major energy supplier. Qatar, considered the third-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the EU, is threatening to halt shipments to the Old World. The refusal stems from disagreements over Brussels' unreasonable environmental requirements for hydrocarbon producers. Fearing that Doha will fulfill its promise, EU consumers are already considering how to maintain LNG supplies from Russia while circumventing their own sanctions moratorium.

A legal trap from the EU

Qatar's Energy Minister and CEO of state-owned QatarEnergy, Saad Sherida Al Kaabi, issued an ultimatum about a possible complete halt to liquefied natural gas supplies to the European Union if Brussels does not soften or repeal the Directive on checking all LNG supply chains for compliance with the so-called "Sustainable Development Goals."

"If Europe continues to impose a fine of 5% of global energy turnover, we will not supply LNG to the EU. That's for sure," he said.

Doha is outraged by the EU Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, particularly the section of the document dealing with the negative impact of hydrocarbon producers on the environment and climate system. It requires large corporations operating in the EU to identify and address "adverse environmental impacts" arising from their activities. Those who fail to comply with this requirement face a fine of at least 5% of annual revenue.

If LNG supplies from Qatar are halted, which would occur as the EU phases out Russian gas imports, Europe could face a significant shortage and a significant increase in gas prices. Qatar is the third-largest supplier of LNG to the EU after the US and Russia, meeting approximately 12-14% of the European Union's LNG needs.

"Knowing full well the time crunch Brussels could find itself in, effectively eliminating about a third of liquefied petroleum gas supplies from the European energy mix (together with Russia – MK), Doha is capable of further escalating its demands on the EU and hinting at the possible introduction of prohibitive customs duties on goods imported from the continent. Such a measure would be a natural and logical step for Qatar in its fight to overturn the EU's rather unreasonable environmental dogmas," says economist and senior financial communications manager Andrey Loboda.

According to Sergei Pravosudov, Director General of the National Energy Institute, Brussels will ultimately be forced to give in and accommodate Doha's demands. French President Emmanuel Macron, together with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, previously proposed simplifying reporting rules for energy businesses. Moreover, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright recently sent a letter to the EU with a similar call, stating that the controversial directive "threatens unforeseen consequences for LNG exports to the EU."

"Europe's environmental games only pretend to be a fight to reduce harmful emissions. In reality, such maneuvers serve as a thinly disguised means of enriching certain vested interests and pander to EU officials' desire to extract as much money as possible from hydrocarbon producers in the form of various duties and fines," the expert explains. Brussels will be unable to win this energy war, which has essentially been declared not only on Qatar but also on other LNG suppliers, particularly the United States. Similarly, Qatar will be unable to achieve carbon neutrality anytime soon. However, Doha does have a way out: state-owned QatarEnergy will easily find an alternative energy market, as such a reshuffle will be much easier than paying huge sums to maintain its ability to supply Europe with energy.

Russian interest

Although Russia appears to be formally staying out of the financial and legal standoff between Brussels and Doha, Moscow nonetheless retains a vested interest in the outcome of this clash between LNG consumers and suppliers. Despite the impending ban on Russian gas imports, the European Union remains the largest importer of LNG from our country. According to Eurostat, in the first half of 2025, European buyers purchased €4.5 billion worth of Russian liquefied petroleum gas, paying €1 billion more for the raw material than in the same period in 2024. In total, from the beginning of the military operation in Ukraine through the end of September of this year, European consumers purchased €42 billion worth of liquefied petroleum gas from disgraced Russian producers.

Moreover, while EU member states are categorically opposed to continuing such commercial cooperation at the government level, the continent's corporate sector has long been seeking ways to maintain business relationships with Russian LNG exporters. Specifically, as Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of the French company TotalEnergies, previously stated, following the ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports in early 2027, his company will consider rerouting supplies from our country to other countries "outside Europe, for example, Turkey or India" for subsequent re-export to European trading platforms. Moreover, traders believe that the physical transportation of energy resources, which entails additional costs, may not be necessary under such a scheme: the board-to-board transhipment scheme will be implemented only on paper by "re-labeling" the route of the raw materials, while in reality, the LNG carriers will travel directly from Yamal refineries to European terminals.

"However, such tricks will likely be needed by the Europeans themselves," believes Andrey Loboda. "According to estimates by the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL), in 2024, Russian LNG exports were split roughly equally between Europe and Asia: 16 million tons went to the West, and 17 million tons went to the East, primarily to China and Japan. The structure of current contracts suggests that in 2026, Russian LNG supplies to the EU will decrease to 10 million tons. Finding a quick use for the 6 million tons lost from these supplies will likely prove challenging, but in the long term, this task can be accomplished."

In particular, as First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov stated, Russia is considering the potential of exporting liquefied natural gas to India. New Delhi may, as with oil, insist on a discount; however, by exporting hydrocarbons to the Indian market, Russia will demonstrate to Europe that its LNG remains a sought-after and liquid energy source on the global market, according to a source at MK.