Experts debate Elvira Nabiullina's views on the signs of a recession.

Despite tight monetary policy, the Russian economy shows no signs of recession, stated Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina. She stated that the Bank of Russia sees scope for gradual monetary policy easing in 2026, but will proceed with caution, as a premature reduction in the key rate could lead to a "double whammy"—a surge in inflation and subsequent rate hikes. Experts interviewed by MK disagree with the regulator's position on all counts.

"I would strongly urge people to take such statements seriously. Because during a recession, two things are inevitable: unemployment rises sharply, followed by a decline in real wages. We're nowhere near either of those right now," Nabiullina noted at a State Duma meeting, justifying this by citing the fact that Russia, on the contrary, is experiencing low unemployment, which is translating into a labor shortage.

In September, she urged people not to confuse a recession with an "economic slowdown." According to Nabiullina, a technical recession only occurs when the economy contracts for two consecutive quarters. This is not the case in the country.

"One can agree with Elvira Nabiullina that there are indeed no formal signs of a recession today," says Andrey Glushkin, a member of the Delovaya Rossiya Council. "The labor market remains extremely tense—companies continue to compete for specialists, which supports employment levels and income growth. Given these dynamics, talking about an 'economic decline' is premature: domestic demand remains stable, and consumer activity is one of the key drivers of current growth. In this sense, the Central Bank governor's arguments appear logical and reflect the real state of the market."

At the same time, a number of structural constraints remain. Companies are becoming more cautious in their investment policies, and business activity in certain sectors is gradually slowing. High interest rates and labor shortages are increasing the burden on businesses, hindering development. The economy is still growing, but unevenly, relying primarily on domestic demand and government incentives. As Glushkin notes, in the near term, it is important to shift the focus to expanding production capacity and improving investment efficiency to ensure sustainable growth.

"To understand whether the economy is in recession, we need more qualifying indicators," says Igor Nikolaev, chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. "Furthermore, rising unemployment and falling wages are difficult to classify as the primary, defining indicators. The number one indicator, in my opinion, is the dynamics of the key macroeconomic indicator—GDP. Last year, it grew by 4.3%, and in 2025, the rate will clearly not exceed 1.2%, unless it's close to zero. This hardly looks like an upswing, you'll agree. Yes, we're not in a recession yet, but there's definitely movement in that direction. We just have to acknowledge it."

The situation is even more telling when broken down by sector. According to Rosstat, two-thirds of the 24 main types of manufacturing are in the red. As Nikolaev points out, 21 manufacturing segments showed growth in 2023, and only three experienced negative growth.

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