Authorities debated the economic recession and named Russia's third ally.

Our country continues to move forward, despite external constraints that are unlikely to disappear in the future. There is no recession in Russia, although the economy is undergoing a planned cooling process, which, most importantly, must not be overdone. This was discussed by the head of the country's financial and economic bloc during the tenth anniversary Moscow Financial Forum (MFF). Under what conditions can the ruble exchange rate be predictable and who is Russia's third ally, besides the army and navy, is discussed in MK's report.

Despite significant external challenges, Russia's economy continues to move forward. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin made this statement in a video address to IFF 2025 participants at the beginning of the plenary session. "For several years now, our country has maintained its leadership in Europe in terms of economic size, and consistently ranks fourth globally," he emphasized. "As for financial sovereignty, it is being strengthened in two ways: through the work of responsible macroeconomic policy institutions and through the improvement of an independent domestic infrastructure capable of ensuring uninterrupted interaction with partners from other countries and within Russia under any circumstances," the prime minister stated.

But the Prime Minister's uplifting statements failed to change the rather skeptical tone of the questions from the plenary session's moderator, Andrei Makarov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes. Russia's budget deficit for the first eight months of this year exceeded 4.1 trillion rubles, equivalent to 1.9% of GDP, despite the government's plan in the spring to keep it below 1.7% for the entire year. The previous day, during a meeting on economic issues, Russian President Vladimir Putin asked whether the ministers considered the country's economic growth rate of 1.1% for the January-July period sufficient, or whether better indicators were needed. Back in August, economists from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) stated that the Russian economy risks recession in 2026. The risk of a technical recession in Russia has been periodically discussed in the Western press, so it's not surprising that the discussions at the IFF plenary session began with this issue.

According to Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina, there are no signs of a recession, including a technical one, in our country. To make such a "diagnosis," a wide range of factors must be taken into account, including the state of domestic demand and the labor market. "Up-to-date data for the summer show that economic growth continues," the Bank of Russia Governor emphasized. "Yes, at a more moderate pace. And this is natural, unfortunately, after a period of economic overheating." Finance Minister Anton Siluanov shares this view. According to him, the economy is in a "planned cooling." He recalled that Vladimir Putin had asked not to overcool the economy and simultaneously reduce inflation by increasing citizens' real incomes. "The key here is, on the one hand, not to overdo it, but also not to underdo it," the Finance Minister noted.

Commenting on the budget's status, Siluanov emphasized the importance of its sustainability. "Russia has allies—the army, the navy, and stable finances," he stated. And to increase the stability of state treasury revenues, it's necessary to reduce dependence on various restrictions, "whether price-related or volume-related," including those from oil and gas. However, progress has been observed in this area for several years now. The share of oil and gas revenues in the state treasury next year will be around 20-22%, while previously it was almost half. "Budget sustainability equals financial sustainability, and financial sustainability equals the fundamental foundations for economic growth and improved well-being," Siluanov stated. Thanks to this, and despite the external pressure of sanctions, the government will be able to fulfill all its obligations to citizens, pensioners, large families, and other recipients of budget funds. "We will index all our social payments, as required by law, and increase child benefits," the Finance Minister added. "All of this will be accomplished, despite the economic difficulties."

During the discussion, the speakers also touched on the ruble exchange rate. According to Nabiullina, it could be "fundamentally strong." "Everyone noticed the appreciation we saw this summer—it's largely due to tight monetary policy," the head of the Central Bank said. "Market laws" operate in the currency market, and people are more concerned about the predictability of the ruble's exchange rate than about its strengthening or weakening. She also outlined what would help reduce fluctuations in the national currency. "Low inflation means a more stable, more predictable exchange rate, one that both the budget and companies can consider," Nabiullina noted.