Who are the Portuguese arsonists?
Twenty years ago, as a teenager, António (not his real name) was first convicted of forest fires. He committed the crime again, and the second sentence arrived the following year, 2006. And on Tuesday, August 5th, the now 37-year-old man was arrested by the Judiciary Police (PJ) on the same suspicion . All the crimes occurred in the same area: Águeda.
This is just one of approximately eight dozen arsonists arrested this year by the National Republican Guard (GNR) and the PJ , according to an estimate given to Observador by a source from the latter security force, who believes the final figures will only be known at the end of the summer. "But this year, apparently, is worse," he acknowledges. In 2024, 137,651 hectares of burned area and 6,255 incidents were recorded, according to the Integrated Rural Fire Management System. The website of the Institute for Nature Conservation and Forests (ICNF), by the late afternoon of August 11, reported nearly 60,000 hectares burned and nearly 5,800 incidents.
Although there are fewer ignitions, there is more burned area, a PJ source told Observador. More and more skilled arsonists have been identified, not only studying ways to create the largest possible fire but also using elaborate devices to give themselves time to escape.
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There are still many fires without a known cause. Among the fires caused by humans are those caused negligently—through agricultural work, vehicle traffic, or the use of machinery—and those caused by intentional or deliberate acts.
An arsonist is rarely arrested for just one fire: criminals may be behind three or four ignitions . And they tend to reoffend, even if they've already served time, as in the Águeda case. Just as there's a serial killer , there's also a serial arsonist , suggests a PJ source.
Mauro Paulino, a clinical and forensic psychologist, lists risk factors such as low education, economic hardship, and substance and alcohol use . "There is a segment that may be associated with an attraction to fire," he explains to Observador. "But not all arsonists have this diagnosis."
Since the beginning of the year, the PJ has arrested four female arsonists. "They end up being more associated with their medical history or retaliation," says Mauro Paulino. Most arsonists tend to be young men: older men are more likely to accidentally set fires when they're unable to control the fires , according to the PJ, which this year arrested a 78-year-old man.
And if the arsonist tends to reoffend, is it possible to rehabilitate him? "It's at least possible to reduce the risk. The effectiveness of the intervention may not be 100%, but the lack of treatment, specialized responses, or monitoring ultimately contributes to the risk of recidivism," warns Mauro Paulino. When arsonists are arrested, intervention with the inmate is hampered by "the lack of psychological resources" in prisons.
Data from the Directorate-General for Rehabilitation and Prison Services (DGRSP) provided to Lusa News Agency reveals that 65 inmates are currently serving sentences for forest fires . The Arson Rehabilitation Program, which was announced in 2018, has not yet been implemented , despite the number of inmates being the highest since 2013.
In freedom, arsonists "are individuals who tend to have a more isolated history; some live alone or with few community ties, and this lack of social structure ultimately exacerbates" the condition, the forensic psychologist points out. "Monitoring by services or attention from family" can be a deterrent. And it's not common for arsonists to seek help: "When a call for help or a signal for intervention arises, it's due to parallel issues," such as drug use or mental health disorders.
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In September 2024, Luís Montenegro announced the creation of a team specializing in criminal fire investigations within the Attorney General's Office, in response to the fires that killed nine people that month, injured 175, and devastated 135,000 hectares of forest. The Prime Minister was responding to the "criminal behavior underlying many of the fires that have occurred in recent days," and also denounced "too many coincidences."
On September 19, at the end of an extraordinary Council of Ministers, the Prime Minister announced the creation of specialized teams bringing together members of the Public Prosecutor's Office, the Judicial Police, and security forces . The first meeting was scheduled for September 23, 2024. However, these teams have existed since 2018. At the time, there was only one, called the Mixed Working Group. It operated under the auspices of the State Secretariat for Forests and brought together GNR and PJ officers, with logistical support from technicians from the Institute for Nature Conservation and Forests (ICNF). In 2021, the teams became two, based at the ICNF facilities in Lousã and Vila Real. The name changed to the Working Group for the Reduction of Ignitions in Rural Areas (GTRIER) , and the objective remained the same: to triage situations related to the negligence and misuse of fire that require further investigation, explains a PJ source.
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Observador asked the Government whether there had been further developments since Montenegro's announcement, or whether the functions that were supposed to fall to the new team continued to fall to the existing team since 2018. However, it was not possible to obtain a response in a timely manner.
In May of this year, the Ministry of Justice under Rita Alarcão Júdice, the Secretary of State for Civil Protection Paulo Ribeiro, and the Secretary of State for Forests Rui Pereira approved an order increasing the number of Ignition Reduction Working Groups from two to five, highlighting "a widely recognized success." Two groups operate year-round in the North, one in the South, and two in the Central region, ensuring coverage of the North, Central, West and Tagus Valley regions, Greater Lisbon and the Setúbal Peninsula, and the Alentejo and Algarve. The groups are based in Lousã, Vila Real, Guarda, Porto, and Portimão. In 2024, they conducted 1,590 investigations into rural fires.
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