Soybeans and biodiesel should guarantee more than 6% of GDP and 2.4 million jobs
Economic activity in the soybean and biodiesel chain is expected to grow nearly 11% in 2025, representing 6.4% of Brazil's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 21.7% of agribusiness GDP. These estimates are part of a study conducted by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea), in partnership with the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove).
The strong advance, according to researchers, is linked to the record harvest that Brazil is expected to harvest this year – Abiove projects 169.7 million tons – and to the increase in the processing of the oilseed.
In addition to consistent demand for soybean oil, which helps maintain industrial activity, the increase in the mandatory biodiesel blend in diesel , which will increase from 14% to 15% starting in August, contributes to a record processing outlook.
The projections were based on results from the first quarter of the year. According to the study, all segments are expected to contribute to the chain's GDP growth, with a particular focus on rural production.
Annual variation in economic activity by segment- Inputs – 3.17%
- Soybean production – 24.11%
- Agribusiness – 3.21%
- Agroservices – 8.24%
Although commodity prices declined in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the end of 2024, they are still higher than the first three months of last year. According to the study's authors, with the expansion of production and the annual increase in prices, the chain's revenue is expected to grow 18.24% in one year, the first increase after three years of decline.
The survey also reveals the importance of agribusiness to the country's economic activity. According to the data, the GDP generated per ton of soybeans produced and processed in agribusiness (R$9,430) represents 4.36 times the GDP generated by the oilseed directly exported (R$2,160).
Soybean and biodiesel chain boosts job marketThe boom in the soybean and biodiesel production chain is also reflected in the labor market. The number of employed people, considering all segments, increased by 7.46% compared to the same period last year, totaling 2.44 million workers.
Only the agroindustry, influenced by the decline in the crushing and refining subsegment, showed a decline in the total number of people employed:
Variation in direct jobs by segment- Inputs: 5,971
- Soybean production: 23,031
- Agroservices: 142,548
- Agribusiness: -2,211
Exports from the soybean and biodiesel chain totaled 27.91 million tons in the first quarter of 2025, an increase of 1.15% compared to the same period last year.
The exported value, however, fell 11.46%, totaling US$ 11 billion in the first three months, due to lower prices, which reflect the prospect of a record global harvest.
China is the main destination for Brazilian soybean exports. The volume shipped to the Asian country in the first quarter of this year grew 6.7% compared to the same period last year.
For soybean meal, the European Union and Southeast Asia were important destinations, driving the increase in shipment volumes. For oil, India is the main market, receiving 67.74% of the total oil exported by Brazil in the first quarter of 2025.
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