Market revises interest rates for the year and confirms recent decision by the Central Bank

Financial market analysts confirmed this Monday (23) the expectation of an increase in the basic interest rate for the year, which rose to 15% at last week's meeting of the Monetary Policy Council (Copom), of the Central Bank.

The agency's directors decided to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, which also led the financial market to review its projections for the Selic rate this year. Until then, the expectation was that it would end the year at 14.75%, but this week's Focus Report already points to a new level of 15% ( see in full ).

However, the change will only be for this year, maintaining the forecast of 12.5% ​​for 2026, 10.5% in 2027 and 10% in 2028.

Also in this week's report, financial market agents interviewed by the Central Bank made a slight downward revision to their inflation expectations for the year, moving to 5.24% – the equivalent of 0.01 percentage points less than estimated last week.

The index, however, is still above the inflation target ceiling of 4.5%, which should only be reached next year. The center of the target, of 3%, remains far away and should not occur in the coming years:

• 2026: 4.5%;
• 2027: 4%;
• 2028: 3.83%.

The growth of the Brazilian economy, measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), will have a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points this year, rising from 2.20% to 2.21%. Next year, it will be 1.85% and 2% in 2027 and 2028.

This week's Focus Report also indicates that the dollar's measured value will end 2025 at R$5.72, or R$0.05 less than predicted last week. For the coming years, the US currency will vary slightly:

• 2026: R$5.80;
• 2027: R$5.75;
• 2028: R$5.80.