Inflation disappointment could support the zloty. The dollar is still on the rise.

The clearly higher than expected July CPI inflation may persuade the Monetary Policy Council to limit the scale of interest rate cuts interest rates. This would be good news for the Polish currency, which in In recent days it has been struggling with unfavorable winds from abroad.

Contrary to the widespread expectations of economists, inflation CPI in July did not fall below 3% and turned out to be significantly higher than the market consensus. Because we don't have a full report yet (it was only a so-called quick estimate), it is not entirely we know what determined this result. Analysts suspect that these were the so-called base category – i.e. other than food, fuel and energy. And this would suggest renewed inflationary pressure resulting from the strength of domestic demand consumer.

In such a situation, the Monetary Policy Council may suspend with further interest rate cuts, which - at least until today - were expected in September or November. It may therefore turn out that we will end 2025 with NBP rates slightly higher than the market expected until recently.

If this were to happen, it would be in the medium term good news for the Polish currency, because the difference between interest rates on the euro and the zloty. This is important because in recent days The strengthening of the dollar against the euro puts pressure on the Polish zloty to weaken. On Thursday at 10:30 the euro cost 4.2664 PLN and was only slightly cheaper than the day before.

At the beginning of this week, the złoty fell significantly. The euro exchange rate increased from 4.2440 to 4.2845 PLN, i.e. by more than 4 groszy. However, these are still fluctuations within the sideways trend that has been ongoing since April, containing in the range of PLN 4.20-4.30. Only the line of PLN 4.30 is permanently crossed on the basis of technical analysis, it would open the way to a more significant weakening of the Polish currencies.

There is much greater volatility in the dollar-zloty pair. The American currency has been strengthening significantly against the euro since the beginning of this week. euro, and this move was accelerated after Wednesday's conference chairman of the Federal Reserve and clearly better from expectations in US GDP statistics .

On Thursday morning, the dollar was worth 3.7283 PLN. This is true almost 1.5 cents less than on Wednesday evening, but for the previous three days The American currency rose by over 13 cents . This is how the USD/PLN exchange rate returned to the levels of early June.

Swiss franc was valued at PLN 4.5871. For the previous two days, the CHF/PLN exchange rate was attacking the upper limit of the sideways trend is at PLN 4.60. A possible break of this level could lead to the Swiss franc at PLN 4.70 – which is how much it cost at the end of November.

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