Small chance that the state will still profit from the nationalization of ABN AMRO

It's a legacy from the past. Since October 3, 2008, the Dutch state has been a shareholder in ABN AMRO, the bank that was nationalized during the banking crisis 17 years ago.

Ownership has been gradually reduced over the past few years, through the sale of small portions of shares. And every announcement of this in recent years has been accompanied by the observation that it is "unrealistic" to "recoup the original capital expenditures."

In other words: we will never see again the nearly €28 billion in taxpayer money the state spent to keep ABN AMRO afloat. In September 2024, we were €5.5 billion short. And to break even, the remaining 30.5 percent stake the state currently holds in ABN AMRO would have to be sold for over €35 per share certificate.

Such a certificate currently sells for around 25 euros each on the Amsterdam stock exchange. For the state to still profit from the nationalization, it would need to add a tenner to the current price. That's a 40 percent price increase.

Not realistic. Or is it? Because a tenner increase is exactly what has happened to the price of the ABN AMRO certificate over the past twelve months. On August 5, 2024, the certificate was trading at €14.37. A year later, it was €24.65.

The state would also be protected if a foreign bank makes a takeover bid, willing to pay a substantial strategic premium. BNP Paribas is sometimes mentioned as a potential buyer of ABN AMRO, especially now that the bank has appointed a new CEO.

As of April of this year, French Marguerite Bérard will take over the reins. Bérard began her career at the French Ministry of Finance, served as an advisor to then-President Nicolas Sarkozy, and then moved into banking.

For the last five years before joining ABN AMRO, Bérard worked at BNP Paribas. This fuels speculation that something positive might blossom between Bérard's former and new employers in the long term.

Especially since BNP Paribas also acquired a majority stake in Fortis in 2009, the Belgian bank-insurer that had swallowed up ABN AMRO just before the banking crisis and its nationalization. If the French were to also acquire ABN AMRO, the circle would be complete.