When will we talk about the economic risk of judicial reform?

The question isn't whether there's an economic risk in reforming the judiciary, but how big that risk is and what measures will be taken to mitigate it. Who will be responsible for this issue, and when will they begin working on it?

We've reached the election date, and it seems that all the government's efforts are focused on achieving a 20% turnout. How the electoral/institutional experiment will work will be determined at a later date. The priority for Morena, the National Palace, and the governors is to ensure that 20 million people turn out to vote this Sunday, June 1st.

The judiciary is malfunctioning and needed major surgery. Instead, the option was chosen that makes political sense, but it doesn't quite clear up the doubts. Will the administration of justice improve for the long-standing disadvantaged? Will we have a system that contributes to a better functioning economy? Many things could get worse, especially in the initial stage. That risk is the elephant in the room. The Bank of Mexico's quarterly report, presented Wednesday, identifies Trump's trade policy as a risk to Mexico's growth, but does not mention the reform of the judiciary as a risk to growth.

There is caution at the central bank, but also among business organizations. The situation at Banxico is explained by the fact that each member of the Governing Board was appointed by the Fourth Transformation. They are there to conduct monetary policy, combat inflation, and assess the risks of the financial system. There are approximately 56,000 lawsuits by banks against clients pending in courts, most of them local. This is one of the many challenges of the transition in the judiciary.

How can we understand the extreme caution of business leaders and their representatives? Off the record, they express their concern about what could happen in the administration of justice, but in public, it's a different story. They didn't raise their voices during the raffle spectacle in the Senate, nor have they even touched the surface of criticism on the process of electing judges, magistrates, and ministers. The accordions; the blatant intervention of governors; and the scandal of incompetent candidates or those reeking of organized crime.

They have preferred silence rather than appear to be enemies of one of the projects AMLO imposed. They acknowledge that there is a dialogue with President Sheinbaum that didn't exist with López Obrador, but it's unclear whether the improvement in dialogue includes open and productive conversations on sensitive issues. Plan Mexico aims to revive public-private partnerships and spur private investment in infrastructure. Will it be possible to convince business leaders to invest billions of pesos and, in the event of a conflict, be subject to the decisions of judges that will emerge from the Judicial Reform?

Businesspeople express more with their wallets than with words. We've been experiencing a downward trend in Gross Fixed Investment for several months. How much of this decline is related to the uncertainty caused by changes in the judiciary? The most recent investment data available is for February 2025, which records a 6% drop compared to the same month in 2024. The investment data table shows that the decline began in September, coinciding with the moment when Morena's supermajority in Congress was consolidated and the demolition of the judiciary was confirmed.

There's the Trump factor and then there are internal factors. In the Bank of Mexico's monthly survey of specialists, external conditions have grown the most when asked about the main factors that could hinder economic growth. Foreign trade policy had a weight of 2 in September of last year and reached 19 points in March. Rule of law issues, excluding public safety, went from a value of 16 in September 2024 to a value of 7 in March 2025. What is the reason for this decline? Have experts resigned themselves or have they become optimistic about what's coming?