The PwC consensus forecasts GDP growth of 2.3% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026.

The PwC Economic and Business Consensus estimates Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.3% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, while ruling out, "for the time being," the tariff war having a direct impact on the Spanish economy.

This is one of the main ideas emerging from PwC's Economic and Business Consensus , corresponding to the second quarter of 2025, which the firm has been developing since 1999, based on the opinions of a panel of more than 450 experts, business leaders, and executives.

On the economic front, the PwC Economic and Business Consensus reflects a moderately optimistic outlook. Although experts acknowledge that uncertainty remains high , especially due to the trade war between Europe and the United States and the global geopolitical context, these factors will, for the time being, have a limited impact on the Spanish economy.

Seventy percent of respondents expect GDP to grow by between 2.2% and 2.6% in 2025, an improvement compared to the forecasts at the end of 2024. For 2026, the majority expects growth of between 1.7% and 2%, figures that, although more moderate, are still significant in a less dynamic European context.

Thus, the average opinion of experts, business leaders, and executives places economic growth at 2.3% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026.

According to the report, 75% of respondents believe the current economic situation is good , although 59% believe it will worsen in the second quarter of 2026. This perception of slowdown is explained by the strong growth recorded in 2024, when GDP increased by 3.2%, well above the European average.

Regarding the labor market, experts agreed that the lack of skilled labor remains a structural problem , exacerbated by a high unemployment rate, which in April stood at 10.9%, the highest in the European Union.

Despite this outlook, 47% of respondents believe that job demand will remain stable over the next six months, compared to 37% who anticipate a decline.

Regarding consumption, 97% consider the household situation to be good or average, and only 15% believe it will worsen in the next quarter . Consequently, 66% expect demand for consumer goods to remain stable, while 44% anticipate an increase in demand for housing.

Exports, however, present a somewhat bleaker outlook. For the first time in the last three editions of the Consensus, the majority of respondents (49%) consider the quarter to be unfavorable for foreign trade , and 64% believe the situation will remain the same until September. "Uncertainty about tariffs with the United States is weighing on the export sector's expectations," the study explains.

In the monetary sphere, experts, business leaders, and executives anticipate a moderation in interest rates . 66% believe the European Central Bank will set rates between 1.75% and 2% in December 2025, and 59% maintain this forecast for June 2026.

Inflation, meanwhile, is expected to remain contained : 58% expect it to be between 1.5% and 2%, and 38% expect it to be between 2% and 2.5%.

Regarding price developments , 72% of business owners and managers expect stability, while 24% anticipate increases, mainly due to rising wages and other operating costs.

For experts, Spain must play a more active role in building a more integrated Europe, both economically and politically. Seventy-three percent of respondents believe Spain should promote fiscal union, support the issuance of permanent joint debt , and promote the elimination of foreign policy vetoes, which would imply moving toward a true political union. Only 5% oppose these developments, considering them an unacceptable surrender of sovereignty.

For their part, almost all of the panelists, 98%, consider Spain's integration into the European Union to have been positive . Experts emphasize that access to the single market has been the main driver of the transformation (51%), followed by institutional strength (23%), which has provided stability and economic discipline, and the arrival of EU funds (22%), which have modernized infrastructure and the productive fabric.

The transfer of sovereignty to Brussels , far from being seen as a loss, is seen as one of the keys to Spain's economic success. Sixty-four percent of respondents agree that this transfer has been necessary and beneficial, and 81% consider it positive.

In contrast, the main criticism of the EU focuses on bureaucracy, which 55% believe has increased the tax burden on citizens , although data shows that the European administration is one of the most efficient in the world relative to its population.

The aspects that have benefited most from European integration, according to more than 60% of respondents, have been export capacity, the modernization of the productive structure, and the integration of Spanish industry into European supply chains. Also notable is the positive impact of the Common Agricultural Policy (72%), which has contributed to the development of the agricultural sector.

Regarding the role Spain should play in the future of the Union, 55% of experts believe it should be more influential , although they acknowledge that it does not yet have sufficient capacity to do so. Another 38% believe Spain should be recognized as a leading country within the EU, a position it does not yet hold. In this context, 95% believe the country should take advantage of its position to lead relations between Europe and Latin America.

According to participants, the main challenges Spain must face in this new European scenario are increasing productivity, reducing public debt, ensuring the sustainability of the pension system, addressing the aging population, and improving access to housing.

Regarding strategic sectors for the future, industry, artificial intelligence, tourism, agriculture, and, to a lesser extent, defense are identified as priority areas for development.