Reduction of grain withholdings: producers assure that sales are "normal"

Following the temporary reduction in taxes on the main grains, exports amounted to approximately US$ 2 billion, but producers have made it clear that there was no boom in sales despite the rise in prices.

According to Juan Manuel Uberti, a grain analyst at the Grassi brokerage, there was an improvement in grain prices after the reduction in withholdings. "Soybeans reached 330,000 pesos in the last few days, showing an increase of nearly 10% in pesos since the implementation of the measure. Corn also remained strong in the first days of February, reaching 225,000 pesos," he said. Meanwhile, wheat went from $195,000 to $220,000.

The analyst stressed that the impact on prices and business occurred mainly in the available market . "Although the producer took advantage of the price opportunity, the negotiated volumes did not reflect a flood of sales, but rather were normal. Corn has been standing out compared to soybeans as the product with the highest negotiated volume," he explained.

According to the report from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the most sold grain was corn , with more than 4 million tons accumulated since the start of the reduction in withholdings until Friday, February 22. It was followed by soybeans, with 3.9 million tons, and wheat, with 1.5 million tons.

Regarding exports registered in the Foreign Sales Declarations (DJVE, a previous step to liquidate the dollars), the main complex was soybean, with almost 2.5 million tons (spiked flour with 1.6 million tons) between January 27 and February 21.

Wheat is in second place with 1.17 million tons and 38,000 tons of flour, and corn is in third place with 1.1 million tons.

According to calculations by former Undersecretary of Agricultural Markets and head of RIA Consultores Javier Preciado Patiño , they represent approximately US$2 billion.

It is worth noting that in January, companies in the agro-industrial sector settled the sum of US$ 2,073 million, 36% more than in the same month in 2024, as well as a 5% increase compared to December 2024.

The new tax payment rates will be temporary (until June 30) for the main crops such as soybeans, which will go from 33% to 26%, and their derivatives (oil and flour), which will go from 31% to 24.5%.

Export duties will also be reduced for wheat (12 to 9.5%), barley (12 to 9.5%), corn (12 to 9.5%), sunflower (7 to 5.5%) and sorghum (12 to 9.5%).

It was under Decree 38/2025, published on January 27, which sets a substantial condition for the countryside to be able to access the relief: 95% of what was declared must be settled within 15 business days.

Rain has returned to the core region and will mark the climate throughout the week. Although the precipitation will not be widespread, it is expected that at the end of the period of instability the accumulated precipitation will be significant and will end up covering a vast area of ​​the Pampas region.

Unlike other recent events, this is not an organized front, but rather isolated storms that will continue to develop until Friday. For the core region, this marks the consolidation of the recovery of crops, according to information from the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR).

But the impact goes further: it will also be key for other areas of the Pampas region, such as the province of Buenos Aires and for a large part of Córdoba and to a lesser extent for Santa Fe, La Pampa and Entre Ríos.

In the core region, the first records already show significant values ​​in different places. In the northeast of Buenos Aires, Baradero accumulated 70 mm, Chacabuco 58 mm and Junín 52.4 mm. In the center-west of Buenos Aires, rainfall exceeded 100 mm in Trenque Lauquen and Pehuajó with Saladillo slightly below (90 mm).

GEA/BCR consultant Alfredo Elorriaga stressed that, contrary to what was expected: “warm and dry circulation from the northwest until the beginning of next week,” circulation from the north was added, which contributed humidity, “a key factor that will favor rainfall in the coming days,” says Elorriaga.

In Rosario, the most significant rainfall is expected from Tuesday onwards. A significant drop in temperatures is not expected, especially in minimum temperatures, as has happened in recent weeks after the arrival of the cold front. There will only be a slight relief from the heat with the instability that will persist throughout the week.

“This week's rains will be very important, not only for continuing to consolidate the recovery in the core region, but also for other key areas of the Pampas region, such as the province of Buenos Aires and part of Córdoba,” said Cristian Russo, Head of Agricultural Estimates at the BCR.

According to the BCR last Thursday , the rains of the last three weeks were key to consolidating the recovery of soybeans in the core region.

A month ago, losses were critical, especially in the northeast of Buenos Aires, where more than 50% of crops were expected to be unharvestable.

However, the turnaround has been better than expected: yields have stabilised and losses have been reduced.

“The rains have put a floor on soybeans in the region, which will possibly be at 14 qq/ha for 2nd-season soybeans and 25 qq/ha for 1st-season soybeans. The rains expected for next week will continue to be important in the recovery of the oilseed yield,” the report highlighted.