Mexico's public debt falls to 49.2% of GDP in the first months of 2025

Amid a global context marked by economic uncertainty, Mexico has achieved a historic reduction in its public debt during the first five months of 2025. The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), headed by Edgar Amador , reported that the Historical Balance of Public Sector Financial Requirements (SHRFSP) fell to 49.2% of GDP , a decrease of 2.1 percentage points compared to the end of 2024.

This figure represents a fiscal respite and places the country below the average of emerging economies and Latin America , consolidating a more solid macroeconomic profile vis-à-vis international markets.

After years in which public debt hovered around levels that caused market concern, the SHCP's announcement is a clear sign that fiscal discipline and responsible financing management measures are bearing fruit . In real terms, debt decreased by 0.1% in absolute terms , but the real catalyst was the appreciation of the exchange rate , which strengthened by 6.7% , thus reducing the value of the external debt in pesos.

The report highlights that the current debt level is significantly lower than that of comparable countries . While other nations are grappling with external financing pressures, Mexico has managed to consolidate a healthy fiscal position , allowing it to maintain high demand for its new debt issues .

Furthermore, 83.4% of the federal debt is domestic , and only 16.6% is foreign , in line with the government's strategy to reduce dependence on international financing .

A key point highlighted by the Ministry of Finance (SHCP) is that 79.9% of the debt is contracted at a fixed rate and with long-term maturities , a measure that minimizes the risks associated with abrupt changes in global interest rates or forced refinancing events.

Similarly, the risk premium (5-year CDS) fell 21 basis points to 120 , while the EMBI+ index for Mexico fell 37 points to 209 , indicating an improvement in the perception of sovereign risk among foreign investors.

Another determining factor in this trend has been the liability management strategy . Through 2025, transactions totaling more than $6 billion have been executed . Highlights include:

• Exchange of bonds for $2.501 billion , which allowed for a 15% reduction in external debt maturing between 2027 and 2031 .
• Early repurchase of international bonds maturing in 2026, for an amount equivalent to US$3.593 billion , covering 85% of the amortizations scheduled for that year .

These measures extend maturities , reduce the burden of short-term debt and maintain fiscal flexibility in the face of potential external shocks .

The Treasury report not only offers figures, but also a long-term vision: a debt structure that is less volatile, more predictable, and less subject to international pressure . This allows the country to access better financing conditions, strengthen its reserves, and sustain public policies without increasing the tax burden or resorting to severe cuts.