Economic Package 2026, decisions and signals

Claudia Sheinbaum's government today presents the 2026 Economic Package.

In that document, he will tell all Mexicans how he plans to plan, collect, and spend the resources he manages.

The Economic Package is a roadmap for any government, as it sets forth its projections for the behavior of key variables.

This Economic Package for next year is especially important because it will outline the strategy to address the legacy of the high fiscal deficit, which hovers around 6%, and the commitment to move toward reducing it to 4.9%.

In general terms, an approach based on fiscal sustainability, deficit reduction, prudence in debt management, and adjustments to macroeconomic projections, with more moderate growth, is expected.

The main challenges, without a doubt, are the pressures on public finances from rising social spending, support for Petróleos Mexicanos, and the rising cost of debt service.

Such commitments limit investment in infrastructure and other fundamental tasks of the Mexican state, such as healthcare and education, among others.

The messages issued by the Sheinbaum administration and its economic team have emphasized the continuity of social policies, the achievement of historic tax revenue, and the expectation of a significant influx of investment.

In this context, there is a significant drop in oil revenues and global uncertainty caused by the tariff policy of US President Donald Trump .

Finance Secretary Edgar Amador has been emphatic in maintaining confidence in fiscal policy and has made significant efforts to reduce the cost of debt service for the federal government, and for Petróleos Mexicanos in particular.

Last Friday (September 5), the Chief Executive announced that banks will no longer be able to deduct taxes from their contributions to the Institute for the Protection of Bank Savings (IPAB) .

He said this measure is part of the 2026 Economic Package, specifically the Revenue Law, which will be presented on September 8, 2025.

He reported that the elimination of this deduction will allow the government to recover approximately 10 billion pesos annually.

The amount, although very important from any individual's perspective, is not of significant importance in budgetary terms.

However, the decision marks a difference from his predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who did not touch the bankers in any way.

Lopezobrador didn't change the rules of the game, and the bankers enjoyed a golden six-year term, with extraordinary profits.

President Sheinbaum stated that she had previously spoken with bankers, so it would be very difficult for this to be a radical change.

The benefits of this decision will be more than economic, they will be political, due to the media impact it has on the population due to the high level of ignorance and the false belief that the bank bailout was negative.

The decision also highlights the government's need to increase revenue.

One thing speculated to be included in the Economic Package is an increase in the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) on sugary drinks.

It wouldn't be a new tax because the IEPS (tax in exchange for taxes on sugary drinks) has been in place since 2014 (it started at 1 peso per liter and is updated annually based on inflation).

An additional inflation increase could likely be announced to discourage consumption, based on the public accusations made by Health Secretary David Kershenobich Stalnikowitz regarding the health risks caused by soft drink consumption and the cost to the public sector of treating the resulting illnesses.

The tax increase would seek to increase government revenue for social programs and healthcare sustainability.

Various legislators have warned that the "sins of sugar" are under government scrutiny and that a "hidden tax" is on the way.

The fact is that the Mexican president has ruled out implementing a tax reform and has said that no new taxes will be raised or created.

However, the government's room for maneuver is very limited, and revenue will have to be increased from somewhere. We'll see.