Argentine assets are still waiting for the Fund's decisions: country risk rose to 730 points

The market is still gauging the impact of the scandal associated with the launch of Libra and is analyzing the support that President Javier Milei has received in the United States, awaiting a greater definition from the International Monetary Fund. The Merval index, which closed last week with a 2.5% drop measured in dollars, fell slightly again and bonds extended their negative streak. Thus, the country risk reached 730 points.

On the exchange front, the parallel dollar ended with a slight rise. On the street, the blue dollar reached $1,240; while the MEP dollar rose a slight 0.1% to close above $1,207 and the cash settlement fell 0.6%. Market operators indicated that, as occurred in the last few sessions, a strong tendency to sell was noted at the end of the session, which caused the price of the MEP dollar to fall a few steps.

In the official market, the Central Bank continues to buy dollars and on Monday it acquired another US$ 129 million, thereby raising the accumulated amount for this month to almost US$ 1.5 billion.

What is missing in the market to consolidate a change of trend? Economist Martín Polo, from Cohen, said: "Although many gestures were noted from Trump towards the president and the IMF itself on his recent tour of the US, the agreement with the IMF has not yet been finalized, which is key to containing international reserves.

"It will be important to monitor the evolution of all these indicators in a market where consensus maintains the expectation that fiscal balance will be maintained in 2025, with a high trade surplus, recovery of international reserves and inflation falling to its lowest level since 2017," Polo added.

In the fixed-income market, global dollar bonds fell by almost 0.6% on Monday, while securities under Argentine law had more neutral results. Balanz analysts explained: "In the last month, local sovereign debt averaged a fall of 2.54% , contrary to what happened in the rest of the region. Argentina and Ecuador (-10.82%) were the only countries in the region that showed falls in the prices of their sovereign debt, both impacted by idiosyncratic factors: Ecuador due to the elections, which showed a closer result than expected, and Argentina due to the LIBRA case, which generated volatility in Argentine assets."

Despite this performance in the City, they remain somewhat optimistic. "We maintain our ' Very Positive' view, given that after the weakness that these assets showed after the coupon payment on January 9, they are now in areas of attractive IRRs," they stated at Proficio Investment. "At the same time, there are potential drivers that in the short term could drive a new bullish rally in these assets, such as an agreement with the IMF or an increase in the rate of reserve accumulation with the arrival of the coarse grain harvest,"

Along these lines, GMA Capital economist Nery Persichini stated: "The local market continues in the dynamics that began at the end of 2024, with profit-taking and a dissipation of the euphoria of the Argentine trade . Of course, for the investor who maintains his positive expectations, the current situation represents an opportunity. The potential gains on dollar bonds are greater than those seen a month ago."