Airport group shares are having a dream year on the Mexican Stock Exchange.

The shares of the three airport groups listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) are expected to grow by double digits in 2025 and are even at historic highs.

Shares of Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMA), which manages the Monterrey terminal, are up 35.38% to 242.96 pesos per unit.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (Asur), which manages Cancún Airport, rose 25.14% to 669.1 pesos.

For its part, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), operator of the Guadalajara airport, is forecasting growth of 18.83% to 424.58 pesos per share.

With these results, the shares of the three airport groups reached historic highs.

Furthermore, these issuers' annual performance exceeds that of the main stock indexes in Mexico; the S&P/BMV IPC index of the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) is up 17.06%, and the FTSE-BIVA index of the Institutional Stock Exchange is up 16.32%.

On the other hand, the shares of the Mexican low-cost airline Volaris are the worst performers, falling 45.43% to 8.53 pesos per share. They are 81.40% below their all-time high of 41.81 pesos per share reached in July 2021.

"In terms of outlook, we believe the industry's performance will depend primarily on the direction of the economy, both domestically and in the United States, consumer confidence, and how the bilateral relationship with our northern neighbor evolves in terms of migration," Vector Casa de Bolsa experts noted in an analysis note.

Analysts highlighted that "there is a significant market segment in Mexico that makes cross-border trips to visit friends and family, known as VFR ("Visiting Friends and Relatives"), which has shown a clear slowdown since the start of President Donald Trump's administration."

Furthermore, oil prices showed a downward trend, reaching lows not seen since 2021. This drop was influenced by various factors, including increased OPEC+ production and trade tensions between the United States and China.

Fuel represents, on average, one-third of airlines' total operating costs, so fluctuations in its price have a significant impact on their financial results, experts said.

Quarterly report supported

The rise in airline stocks is also driven by first-quarter 2025 reports.

“Although we continue to see complications due to the engine issue, passenger traffic improved at the airports of all three issuers. Asur and GAP reported growth but weak margins, while OMA reported mixed figures, with a drop in revenue as a result of the decline in construction revenue,” stated Elisa Vargas, an analyst for Ve por Más, in a study.

The airline industry specialist added that Volaris reported lower than expected, with an 11.7% annual drop in revenue due to the depreciation of the peso and lower total operating income per passenger.

Uncertainty in the outlook

Experts believe that airport groups will navigate a period of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

In the case of Asur, they expect the issuer to experience organic growth, as well as certain operational improvements in its international complexes, Monex Casa de Bolsa strategists stated in a statement.

In the case of GAP, in the short term, "it will be important to evaluate the issue of aircraft recalled for review/preventive maintenance in the local market (Airbus), the readjustment of supply, the fulfillment of the issuer's expectations for 2025, as well as economic growth expectations both locally and globally," the analysts noted.

They added that at OMA, the focus will be on operational flow performance, the attractiveness of nearshoring in the business segment, and progress in inspections/preventive maintenance of Airbus aircraft (more standardized comparable bases in the local segment), as well as on economic performance.