US tariffs: Italy's growth wiped out by 2025 with 30% tariffs

In the medium to long term, the resilience typical of Italian companies will be able to absorb the blow of US tariffs. "The problem lies within a year, especially for sectors most exposed to the United States, such as pharmaceuticals, agri-food, or some mechanical engineering sectors," observes Marco Daviddi, managing partner of EY, which has just published the second edition of the EY Parthenon Bulletin, which also estimates the potential impact of protectionist measures on our country's economy.

According to EY estimates, a possible confirmation of 30% tariffs starting August 1st would lead to a cumulative reduction in GDP of 1.4%, effectively wiping out the expected 0.6% growth (expected to rise to +0.8% in 2026), with an estimated negative impact of just under €30 billion between 2025 and 2026. If tariffs were confirmed at 20%, as communicated in early April, the economic impact is estimated at around €20 billion, a 65% contraction compared to growth expectations (-0.9% cumulative between 2025 and 2026). The analysis does not estimate the impact of potential tariffs at 10% because, according to EY forecasts, the amount of tariffs is unlikely to fall below 20%.

"Some sectors will be directly impacted," Daviddi adds. "I'm thinking of those with the highest export volumes to the US, such as pharmaceuticals, food & beverage, and some mechanical engineering sectors. But it's clear that if such a dynamic were to be triggered, the consequences and effects would impact all sectors, as the situation would dampen companies' propensity to invest and private individuals' propensity to consume."

The tariffs will also have a geographical impact: while Italy, along with Germany, could be particularly hard hit due to its strong industrial and export-oriented nature, EY's analyses (conducted at the European level) estimate a similar impact across all EU nations.

"Despite this complex and highly uncertain scenario, Italian companies are demonstrating a remarkable ability to adapt," Daviddi notes. "In recent months, we have observed a great deal of reflection, awareness, and action on the part of companies, which have not remained idle, watching or waiting for government decisions." This is confirmed by some data from the first half of 2025: EY noted significant growth in foreign investments, with a 17% increase in announced deals (143 versus 122 in the same period in 2024), as well as an increase in value, from €7.1 billion in the first six months of last year to €13.5 billion.