The French challenge Unicredit. Crédit Agricole seeks to raise its stake above 20% of Banco BPM.

Milan – Crédit Agricole's grip on Banco BPM is tightening. After requesting a 20% stake last spring, the French bank's board is now asking the ECB to exceed 20% to qualify the stake as "significantly influential" and consolidate it as equity in its balance sheet. However, once 20% is exceeded, there is room to increase the stake to 30% even without launching a takeover bid. "Crédit Agricole does not intend to acquire or exercise control over Banco BPM and will keep its stake below the takeover threshold," the French banking group stated.

However, with the French state already a shareholder of Banco BPM through Banque Postale, with BNP Paribas and Natixis also holding small stakes, the French presence in the Milanese bank's shareholder base is now very significant. This presence opposes UniCredit's desire for conquest while also aligning with the position of the Italian government, with which French leaders have been in contact since the beginning of Andrea Orcel's takeover.

Thus, the Italian government, and in particular the Ministry of Economy and Finance, led by Giancarlo Giorgetti, immediately hindered Unicredit's takeover bid, ultimately launching the "golden power" on April 18th, with very demanding requirements for the takeover bid. At the same time, it facilitated the French bank's rise in capital, initially authorized to increase its stake from 10% to 20%, and now even up to 30%.

The French Banco BPM shares will most likely not be delivered to UniCredit's takeover bid if it goes through, as they are considered strategic. And they will constitute a block, along with another 6-7% stake in foundations and pension funds, which could preclude any extraordinary transaction for Orcel. He is awaiting the Regional Administrative Court's ruling on the golden power to decide whether to continue with his venture or withdraw his offer.