Stock Market and Duties News Today, May 15. Focus on Powell and Stars and Stripes Sales Data
MILAN – Market optimism weakened on concerns about US debt and Donald Trump’s unclear trade policies, after the euphoria generated by tailwinds at the start of the week and ahead of today’s speech by Jerome Powell and today’s data on US retail sales . Treasury yields rose and the benchmark 10-year rate rose to a one-month high above 4.5%, while Republicans in Congress are pushing ahead with some major elements of President Trump’s budget package, with some key committees approving tax cuts that would add trillions of dollars to US debt while reducing health care spending for the poor and disabled. Meanwhile, Asian stocks are falling and Wall Street futures are losing ground , while those in Europe are also weak, after the S&P 500 index swung between gains and losses yesterday, closing at +0.1%, just a day after returning to positive territory for the first time since February.
Eurozone: GDP and employment up 0.3% in first quarter
In the first quarter of 2025, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.3% in both the euro area and the EU, compared with the previous quarter, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the fourth quarter of 2024, GDP had increased by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 1.2% in the euro area and by 1.4% in the EU in the first quarter of 2025, following +1.2% in the euro area and +1.4% in the EU in the previous quarter.
Public debt: Bankitalia, rises to 3,033.9 billion in March, +9.5 billion
Last March, the debt of the General Government increased by 9.5 billion compared to the previous month, amounting to 3,033.9 billion. This was reported by Bankitalia in the statistical publication 'Public Finance: Requirement and Debt' relating to March 2025. For Bankitalia, the requirement of the General Government (23.7 billion) more than offset the reduction in the Treasury's liquid assets (13.9 billion, to 62.2) and the effect of the discounts and premiums on issuance and repayment, the revaluation of inflation-linked securities and the change in exchange rates (-0.2 billion). With reference to the distribution by subsector, the debt of the Central Government increased by 9.6 billion, while that of the Local Government decreased by 0.1 billion. The debt of social security institutions remained substantially stable, while the average residual life of the debt - unchanged compared to the previous month - was equal to 7.9 years.
Eni: Exclusive Negotiations with Ares to Sell 20% of Plenitude
Eni has signed a temporary exclusivity agreement with the Ares Alternative Credit Management investment fund aimed at negotiating a definitive agreement and the subsequent finalization of the sale of a 20% stake in Plenitude, based on an equity value of the company between 9.8 and 10.2 billion euros, corresponding to an enterprise value of over 12 billion euros. This was announced in a press release. The agreement, the note continues, follows a "complex selection among multiple internationally renowned entities that have shown significant interest in the company, which thus confirms the great attractiveness of its business model and related growth prospects". The news did not immediately make Eni shares rise, which instead are paying for the fall in the price of oil: they are down 1.1%, reaching 13.29 euros, against a Ftse Mib index at -0.42%.
Europe weak at the start, -0.48% Frankfurt, -0.25% Paris, -0.31% Madrid
Europe weak at the start, -0.48% Frankfurt, -0.25% Paris, -0.31% Madrid
France: Insee, inflation +0.6% monthly in April, +0.8% annual
Consumer prices in France rose by 0.8% in April on an annual basis, according to the French national institute for statistics and economic studies INSEE, which slightly revised its estimate of monthly inflation upwards to +0.6% (from +0.5%). Over the course of a year, the fall in energy prices (-7.8% after -6.6% in March) was offset by increases in the prices of services (+2.4% after +2.3%) and food (+1.2% after +0.6%). Prices of manufactured goods are evolving at the same pace as in March (-0.2%), as are those of tobacco (+4.1%). The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) increased by 0.7% in April on a monthly basis (after +0.2% in March) and by 0.9% on an annual basis.
Milan opens in decline
Negative opening for the Milan Stock Exchange, with the Ftse Mib index losing 0.38% after the first trading, settling at 40,201.74 points. Tenaris (-1.25%), Prysmian (-1.17%), Unicredit (-0.96%) and Nexi (-0.71%) are down. Leonardo (+0.48%) and Tim (+0.3%) are up.
France: April inflation stable at +0.8% year-on-year, in line with estimates
Consumer prices in France rose by 0.8% in April on an annual basis, as in March and February, according to final data published on Thursday by Insee, which revised its estimate of monthly inflation slightly upwards, bringing it to +0.6%. Over the course of a year, the fall in energy prices (-7.8% after -6.6% in March) was offset by increases in services (+2.4% after +2.3%) and food (+1.2% after +0.6%). Prices of manufactured goods evolved at the same pace as in March (-0.2%), as did tobacco (+4.1%).
Government Bonds: Btp/Bund Spread Opens Stable at 101 Points
The Btp/Bund spread opens at 101 points, stable compared to yesterday's close and close to the psychological threshold of 100 bp. The yield on the Italian 10-year bond stands at 3.70%. Yesterday, for the first time since October 2021, the spread fell below the 100 threshold.
Gas: price on the rise at Amsterdam TTF, above 35 euros
The price of gas is on the rise this morning. At the Amsterdam TTF, futures are trading at 35.40 euros per megawatt hour, with a jump of over 1 percentage point.
Tokyo Stock Exchange: Closes Down, Nikkei -0.88%
Tokyo stocks closed lower, with the Nikkei and Topix losing 0.88% to 37,793 and 2,738.99, respectively, as the recent rally driven by the US-China trade deal lost momentum. Analysts noted that while easing global trade tensions have provided some relief, the broader outlook for corporate earnings and economic growth remains largely unchanged. Investors are also watching developments in a potential US-Japan trade deal, with Tokyo aiming to finalize a deal by June.
Exchange rates: Euro opens higher, above 1.12 against the dollar
Euro up against the dollar at 1.1213 (+0.35%). While it is down against the Japanese currency, euro/yen (-0.38%) at 163.35. Dollar/yen -0.68% at 145.68
Centrale del latte d'Italia, net profit for the quarter up 19%
Centrale del latte d'Italia, the third largest Italian operator in the fresh and long-life milk market, closed the first quarter of 2025 with a turnover of 78.1 million euros compared to 81.9 million in the same period of the 2024 financial year, a decrease of 4.8%. This reduction - it explains in a note - is mainly driven by the deflationary period and the consequent reduction in the average sales price, to the benefit of the cost of goods sold, which had a weight of 77% on the turnover in the first quarter of 2025 compared to 80% in the first quarter of 2024.
The spread between BTPs and German Bunds opens little changed at 100.7 points
The spread between German 10-year BTPs and Bunds opens slightly lower at 100.7 points, compared to the 101 recorded at the close the day before. Yesterday, the figure fell below the 100-point threshold for the first time since September 2021. The Italian annual yield is down 1 point, falling below 3.7%, and the German yield is down 0.5 points at 2.69%.
UK GDP rises above estimates in first quarter at 1.3%
UK first-quarter GDP rose 1.3% year-on-year, beating estimates by 1.2%, compared with a previous gain of 1.5%. Compared to the previous 3 months, the increase is 0.7%, against the 0.6% expected and the previous +1%. On a monthly basis, the March figure improves by 0.2% compared to the previous month, when it had risen by 0.5%, and by 1.1% compared to March 2024, when it had risen by 1.4%. For the month of March, an increase of 1% on an annual basis was expected.
Iveco: Q1 adjusted net profit revenues 84 mln
Iveco closed the first quarter of the year with consolidated revenues of €3.026 billion, down 10.1%. And an adjusted net profit of €84 million (€153 million in the first quarter of 2024), down 45.1%, with an adjusted diluted earnings per share of €0.31 (€0.57 in the first quarter of 2024). Adjusted EBIT was €152 million compared to €233 million in the first quarter of 2024 with a margin of 5.0% (6.9% in the first quarter of 2024). Adjusted EBIT of Industrial Activities was €117 million (€201 million in the first quarter of 2024), with better prices and actions to contain selling, general and administrative expenses that partially offset lower volumes and mix.
Asian stocks: continue to decline
Asian stock markets retreat. The recent rally sparked by the US-China trade deal has begun to fade, with investors focused on earnings prospects and economic growth. Meanwhile, China lifted its export ban on rare earths destined for US entities, signaling a further easing of trade tensions. Shanghai fell 0.42%, Hong Kong lost 0.17%. Seoul lost 0.56%. The Nikkei lost 0.91%.
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