Jet fuel prices slow, cheaper or more frequent flights? How could travel change?

Demand for jet fuel is slowing globally . This slowdown might seem like good news for Italian travelers, as it suggests lower costs for airlines and therefore—at least in theory— cheaper tickets .

But the reality, as is often the case, is much more nuanced. And what might seem like a logical conclusion is actually a question. A question worth asking: will we see a drop in prices or a reduction in supply? In other words, will we travel more while spending less, or will we fly less because the number of routes will decrease?

What's happening to the jet fuel market

According to the latest analysis by Reuters, global demand for jet fuel is set to remain below pre-pandemic levels until at least 2026 , due to three main factors: the decline in Chinese travellers abroad, restrictive immigration policies in the United States and the increasing efficiency of new aircraft.

In particular, China—the world's second-largest economy—continues to focus on domestic tourism, following a prolonged period of closures and pandemic-related fears. International travel by Chinese citizens , which accounted for a significant share of demand for long-haul flights, is still far from 2019 levels. International airlines are therefore reducing supply to the Chinese market, with direct repercussions on the overall balance of aviation fuel demand .

Meanwhile, in the United States, the Trump administration's increasingly stringent immigration policies are discouraging foreign tourists , especially Europeans. According to BMI, a Fitch Group company, a 16.3% decline in international arrivals to the US is expected in 2025. And Cirium data already shows a 1.2% decline in British passengers traveling overseas compared to 2024.

The fuel paradox: fewer flights, but more efficiency

Adding to the slowdown in demand is another structural factor: technological innovation in aircraft. New aircraft models are much more energy efficient . Airbus's A320neo, introduced in the 2010s, has reduced fuel consumption by 15% compared to the previous generation. Boeing is no exception, with the 737 Max offering similar savings. And for the future, Airbus promises an even more efficient aircraft, capable of reducing fuel consumption by 20-30% compared to the current model, although it is expected to enter service in 10-15 years.

This means that even if flights don't decrease dramatically, the amount of fuel used to carry the same number of passengers drops significantly. Consequently, demand for jet fuel cools, impacting the entire oil sector. Not surprisingly, jet fuel accounts for about 7% of global oil demand , and a decline in its demand could help ease pressure on crude oil prices.

Are flight prices really falling?

For Italian consumers, the hope is that lower fuel costs will translate into lower airfares . However, this equation is by no means automatic. Indeed, while improved aircraft efficiency and declining demand could reduce airlines' operating costs, other factors could offset this effect.

First, faced with declining profits (due to lower prices), airlines are likely to opt for route reductions . If some destinations, especially long-haul ones, become less profitable for airlines (especially in the absence of Chinese or American tourists), they could be canceled or operated less frequently. The result? Less competition and, therefore, stable or even rising prices on some routes.

Secondly, airlines are facing an uncertain macroeconomic environment , including inflation in services, rising personnel costs, and the investments required for the ecological transition (including the use of sustainable fuels like SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel), which are much more expensive than traditional jet fuel). They are therefore likely to seek to maintain margins, avoiding passing on any fuel savings to passengers.

What changes for those traveling from Italy?

For Italian travelers, the impact of this scenario will vary depending on the destination and flight type . Here are some key implications:

Routes to the United States and Asia may be reduced or operated less frequently. It's likely that the offerings will be scaled back, impacting prices and availability, especially during peak seasons.

Looking at intra-European flights, Europe continues to see strong demand, although IATA data shows stagnation in domestic flights in some countries. However, prices could remain high due to reduced competition in some markets.

Opportunities are opening up for less traditional but more economical destinations . Low-cost airlines could strengthen their offerings on routes to North Africa, the Balkans, and Turkey , where costs are lower and demand is growing.

Ultimately, we'll still fly—but probably differently. Fewer long-haul flights, more regional routes , more efficient aircraft, and more informed travel choices. The "new normal" for air travel is already here: quieter, less polluting... and perhaps a little less accessible.