Focus on Mediobanca after the plan update, the discount of the Mps takeover bid widens

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Mediobanca in focus at Piazza Affari after the presentation of the update of the strategic plan to 2028. The prices of Piazzetta Cuccia are moving weakly in the face of a sector mostly in the red. Banca Mps , in particular, is among the worst on the list with the discount of the takeover bid of Rocca Salimbeni that widens to over 8%, equal to a gap of approximately 1.38 billion compared to market valuations.

Mediobanca has announced that it estimates for 2028, in a standalone perspective, a net profit of 1.9 billion, with a growth of 45% from June 2025, earnings per share of 2.4 euros (+14% average annual), ordinary earnings of 1.7 billion (+30% and +9% average annual for the EPS of 2.1 euros) on revenues of over 4.4 billion (+20% in the three-year period and +6% average annual). Shareholders will receive 4.9 billion in three years , of which 4.5 billion in cash. The payout will be 100% of ordinary earnings and "entirely in cash", with a dividend per share of 1.12 euros in 2025, which will rise by 50% in 2026 and then again until it doubles to 2.1 euros in 2028.

The objectives, noted CEO Alberto Nagel, are the demonstration of an " exciting stand-alone growth path " that will be "further enhanced by the combination with Banca Generali", the closing of which is expected in October and which will bring 2028 revenues to 5 billion, with a Rote of over 20%. Piazzetta Cuccia then returns to define the takeover bid by MPS as "devoid of industrial and financial rationale" and "characterized by evidently high execution risks". Between the combination with Rocca Salimbeni and solitary growth, therefore, according to Nagel "there is no comparison". "We welcome the new projections of Mediobanca's strategic plan", commented Morgan Stanley analysts, appreciating in particular "the improvement in organic capital generation pursued by management, from the average of 220 basis points included in the 23-26 plan to the new target of 280 basis points". “We believe strong capital flow can support attractive distributions, improve profitability and maintain healthy capital levels, suggesting upside versus consensus expectations,” they add.