Economic Week: Focus on Tariffs, Lens on ECB and US Jobs

ROME – Markets are bracing for another volatile week after Donald Trump accused China of violating the recent tariff truce and US Commerce Secretary Scott Bessent described talks between Washington and Beijing as “a bit stalled”. In Europe, the spotlight is on Thursday’s ECB meeting, with the Frankfurt institution almost certain to cut rates by 25 basis points . More generally, it will be important to monitor the new growth and inflation estimates, with the latter expected to register a significant reduction. The expectation is that the ECB could cut further in July or pause and introduce another 0.25% cut later. Everything will depend on Trump’s tariffs , which could come into force on July 9 and which will be decisive in guiding central bankers’ moves.

MONDAY 2 JUNE

- Rome: press conference after bilateral meeting between the Minister of Agriculture, Food Sovereignty and Forests , Francesco Lollobrigida, and the US Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke L. Rollins (Masaf - 3.50 pm)

- Italy: Italian manufacturing PMI, May.

- Japan: Final Manufacturing PMI, May.

- Italy: Manufacturing PMI, May.

- France: Final Manufacturing PMI, May.

- Germany: Final Manufacturing PMI, May.

- Eurozone: Final Manufacturing PMI, May.

- UK: consumer credit, April.

- UK: Final manufacturing PMI, May.

- US: Markit PMI Final Manufacturing, May.

TUESDAY 3 JUNE

- Istat: employed and unemployed April (10:00 am) - Istat: Waste management cost indices (2024) (11:00 am) - Fiumicino: Enel, event "Pioneer, New tech for a Zero Carbon Airport, from exhausted batteries to sustainable energy". With the Minister of Enterprise and Made in Italy, Adolfo Urso; Pierluigi Di Palma, President of Enac. (Fiumicino, Hilton Garden Inn Rome Airport via Vittorio Bragadin 2 - 11:00 am)

- Rome: first day of the IV Meeting of the Space Agencies of the IILA Member Countries , organized by the Italian Space Agency, in collaboration with the Italo-Latin American Institute (IILA). With Edmondo Cirielli, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation; Teodoro Valente, President of the ASI and President of the UN Committee for the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (ASI - 9:00 a.m. The meeting ends on June 6).

- Rome: conference 'Is the future still green? Where is the transition at?'. With Nicola Lanzetta, director of Enel Italy; Mattia Voltaggio, Eni School for Business; Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, Minister of the Environment and Energy Security; Matteo Salvini, Minister of Infrastructure and Transport (Ara Pacis Museum, via di Ripetta - 4:00 p.m.)

- Rome: "Dossier 2025: from numbers to reality", produced by the Birth Foundation in collaboration with Istat. Participants include Francesco Maria Chelli, president of Istat; Franco Parasassi, president of Fondazione Roma ("The Dome" Luiss, viale Romania - 10:30 am)

- Inps: conference ' Inps for young people '. With the president of Inps, Gabriele Fava and the director general Valeria Vittimberga (Palazzo Wedekind, piazza Colonna 366 - 10.00 am)

- Cars: the Ministry of Transport releases data on May registrations (6:00 p.m.)

- Public accounts : the Ministry of Economy releases data on the requirement, May.

- Eurozone: May inflation and core inflation; unemployment rate (April)

- US: Industrial Orders, April.

- US: Durable Goods Orders, April.

WEDNESDAY 4 JUNE

- Unicredit: Lazio TAR hearing on appeal on golden power in Banco Bpm ops.

- Federmanager: annual meeting of Federmanager Rome.

Speakers include Antonio Amato, President of Federmanager Roma; Giulio Bugarini, Councillor of Rome Capital; Valter Quercioli, President of Federmanager Nazionale; Mario Nobile, Director General of Agid (WeGil, Largo Ascianghi 5 - 4:00 p.m.)

- Rome: Aefi, 10th World Fairs Day 2025

- Confcommercio: Professions conference on health and well-being. With Schifone, member of the XII Social Affairs Commission of the Chamber, Fioroni, president of Confcommercio Professions, and Barbieri, general secretary of Confcommercio Enterprises for Italy (Chamber, Sala Matteotti - 9:30 am)

- Rome: the Minister of Business and Made in Italy, Adolfo Urso, inaugurates the exhibition " Exhibiting innovation: the hub fairs of Made in Italy ", curated by Aefi (Palazzo Piacentini - 12:30 pm) - Rome: on the occasion of the award ceremony of the Diplomas of the ninth edition of the Anti-corruption Master, Lectio Magistralis "Investments, growth and legal risk", held by Tria (Tor Vergata University, Economics - 10:00 am) - Rome: Asstra-Associazione Trasporti, 19th national conference "Ready for the future - Let's build tomorrow's mobility". With the Minister of Transport Matteo Salvini (Parco dei Principi, Grand Hotel, via Frescobaldi 5 - 3:30 pm) - Rome: event by 'Il Messaggero', "Italy is transforming - A capital challenge. Looking at the world and imagining the future". With the mayor of Rome Gualtieri, the president of Il Messaggero Caltagirone, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Tajani, the Minister for European Affairs and the Minister of the Interior Piantedosi (Villa Miani, via Trionfale 151 - 3.30 pm)

- Milan: " Sky Tg24 - Live In Milan ". With the president of Confindustria, Emanuele Orsini; Maurizio Landini, general secretary of CGIL (in connection); Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa (in connection); Guido Crosetto, Minister of Defense (in connection); Matteo Piantedosi, Minister of the Interior (in connection); Adolfo Urso, Minister of Enterprise and Made in Italy (in connection); Elly Schlein, secretary of the PD (in connection) (Teatro Dal Verme, Via San Giovanni sul Muro 2 and streaming - 12:00)

- Bolzano: Confindustria Alto Adige assembly. With the president of Confindustria, Emanuele Orsini (MEC Sheraton, Fiera di Bolzano - 6:00 p.m.)

THURSDAY 5 JUNE

- Rome: Electrolux Round Table at Mimit , with Minister Adolfo Urso (Palazzo Piacentini - 3:00 pm)

- Rome: the Minister of Enterprise and Made in Italy, Adolfo Urso , speaks at the second edition of "The Day of Truth", organized by the director of the daily newspaper La Verità, Maurizio Belpietro (Palazzo Brancaccio, viale del Monte Oppio 7 - 5.00 pm)

- Rome: presentation of the book "Innocenti" by Benedetto Lattanzi and Valentino Maimoni. With the president of Confedilizia, Giorgio Spaziani Testa and the authors (Confedilizia, Sala Einaudi via Borgognona 47 - 6:30 pm)

- Rome: celebration of the 211th anniversary of the Foundation of the Carabinieri. With the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti (Villa Borghese - 7:15 p.m.)

- Siena: Mps Foundation conference "1995-2025 A community that grows together" (Santa Maria della Scala - 9.30 am)

- Brescia: "High Level Economic Dialogue (Joint Committee for Economic Cooperation)" and "Italy-India Entrepreneurial Forum"Participants include, among others, Antonio Tajani, Minister of Foreign Affairs; Piyush Goyal, Minister of Indian Trade and Industry; Giorgio Marsiaj, Delegate of the President of Confindustria for Aerospace (Santa Giulia Museum Complex, Via Musei 81/B and streaming - 9.00 am).

FRIDAY 6 JUNE

- Istat: prospects for the Italian economy (Years 2025/2026) (10.00 am)

- Rome: the sixth edition of the "Phygital Sustainability Expo - The European States General on the Culture of Sustainability", curated by Fashion Sustainable Innovation Society, concludes. Participants include Daniela Santanchè, Minister of Tourism.

- Cgil: closing of the referendum campaign. With the general secretary, Maurizio Landini (piazza Testaccio - 5:30 pm) - Novara: assembly of Confindustria Novara Vercelli Valsesia (Cnvv) jointly organized with Confindustria Piemonte.

With the president of Confindustria, Emanuele Orsini (University of Eastern Piedmont, Aula Magna Baluardo Lamarmora 7 - 10.30 am)

- France: Industrial Production, April.

- Germany: Industrial Production April.

- Consob: Commissioner Alemanno's hearing at the European Economic and Social Committee on financial education in Brussels.

- Eurozone: Retail Sales, April.

- Eurozone: Final GDP, Q1.

- Eurozone: final employment, Q1.

- Japan: Household Consumption, April.

- US: Nonfarm Payrolls Change; Unemployment Rate; Average Hourly Earnings May.

SATURDAY 7 JUNE

- Venice: national conference of the Knights of Labor - " The Europe we want" . Speaker: Antonio Patuelli, president of Abi (Giorgio Cini Foundation, Tapestry Hall, Island of San Giorgio Maggiore 1 - 9.30 am)

- Venice: The Human Safety Net, Il Foglio event "The Innovation Festival" With the president of Confindustria, Emanuele Orsini (Piazza San Marco 128 - 9.00 am)