Diasorin collapses and returns to 2017 levels after the accounts and the revision of the guidance

( Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor ) - Diasorin suffered a sharp slide following its lower-than-expected quarterly results and a significant reduction in guidance, which prompted major brokers to revise estimates. The stock plunged to the bottom of the Milan stock exchange and briefly fell below the €64 mark, a level it hadn't seen since April 2017. Estimates for 2025 call for revenue (excluding COVID-related revenue) to grow 5% at constant exchange rates, up from a previous 8%, while including COVID-related revenue, overall growth is expected to be 4% (up from 7%). The adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be around 33% (up from approximately 34% previously).

Deutsche Bank analysts (buy with a target price of 109 euros) called the extent of the revision to 2025 guidance "surprising," with just one quarter left to go. The quarterly numbers, Deutsche Bank said, were below estimates "by 3% in sales, 8% in adjusted EBITDA, and 5% in adjusted net profit." JP Morgan analysts, after the quarterly results, lowered their target price on the stock to 68 euros, while Intermonte reduced its target price from 89 to 82 euros, confirming its neutral rating. The results were "weaker than expected , with revenue and adjusted EBITDA 5% and 12% lower than our estimates and the consensus, respectively." The company saw a quarterly slowdown at constant exchange rates "across all major divisions," with the addition of "further currency-related headwinds."

Analysts emphasize that "some unfavorable elements were already known from the first half of the year , such as the difficulties in the Chinese market, the persistent weakness of the licensed technologies division (-15% in the Life Sciences segment, with no signs of stabilization yet), and the expected decline in COVID-19 testing." There was also a decline in testing volumes in the MolecularDX division, linked to the delayed start of the respiratory season. Furthermore, US tariffs and an unfavorable sales mix weighed on profitability. Intermonte aligned its estimates with the new outlook, with EPS decreasing by approximately 6% for 2025 and 8-10% for the following two years. Equita also cut its revenue estimates by 3%-4% and adjusted EBITDA by 10%-11% and expects a similar revision to the consensus. The target price was reduced by 19% to 96 euros, but the rating remains buy.

"The stock arrived weakly at the results and has performed poorly since the beginning of the year (-25% YTD), but the results and guidance cut are disappointing, and for this reason, we expect a significant negative reaction from the stock today," the analysts say. "We believe," they add, "that 2026 could see a reacceleration of the business with the full availability of new products and the fading of some headwinds that impacted this year. A return to mid- to high-single-digit growth is clearly not a given at current valuations."