Climate: Fossil fuels still above limits by 2030

Ten years after the Paris Agreement, the gap between governments' climate commitments and the reality of their energy plans continues to widen. This is according to the Production Gap Report 2025 , presented on September 22 by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), and Climate Analytics . The report, now in its fifth edition, captures a structural contradiction: while the international community reiterates the need to limit global warming to 1.5°C, governments are planning an increase in coal, oil, and gas production that is pushing the world in the opposite direction.

The key concept is the production gap , i.e. the difference between the volumes of fossil fuels that countries intend to extract and the levels compatible with the Paris climate pathways. By 2030, government plans will lead to fossil fuel production that is 120% higher than levels compatible with 1.5°C and 77% higher than those at 2°C . This is a worsening compared to 2023, when the gap was already 110% and 69%. The analysis shows how, at an aggregate level, governments intend to produce more coal until 2035, more gas until 2050, and continue to increase oil extraction throughout the century. According to the report's scenarios, in 2030, projected global production would be 500% higher for coal, 92% for gas, and 31% for oil compared to levels compatible with 1.5°C.

The critical point is that these plans clash with the very forecasts of international energy scenarios. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global demand for coal, oil, and gas will peak before 2030. Governments, however, continue to focus on new production and fossil fuel infrastructure, creating a "lock-in" effect that will make it more difficult and costly to reverse the trend in the future . The report highlights two consequences. The first is that cumulative fossil fuel production over the years 2020-2029 will be much higher than allowed by climate pathways. The second is that, precisely to compensate for this excess, cuts in the future will have to be more rapid and painful. To meet the goal of climate neutrality in the second half of the century, it will be necessary to reduce fossil fuel production to the lowest possible levels: almost zero coal by 2040 and cut oil and gas by about three-quarters by 2050 compared to 2020.

Some producing countries have begun to take action. Colombia has adopted a roadmap for a just energy transition, Germany has anticipated the coal phase-out, Brazil has launched a transition acceleration program, and China has already reached its 2030 target for renewable solar and wind capacity six years ahead of schedule. However, the majority of governments are not aligning production plans with climate goals and continue to support the fossil fuel industry with direct or indirect subsidies. In 2024, the level of public support for fossil fuels remained near an all-time high.

The report analyzed in detail the plans of 20 major producers, from the United States to China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. A full 17 of the 20 countries plan to increase production of at least one fossil fuel by 2030, and 13 anticipate strong growth in gas. In some cases—such as the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia—the forecasts are even higher than those recorded in 2023. The conclusion is unequivocal: unless governments explicitly integrate the reduction of fossil fuel production into their energy transition plans, every climate objective will remain out of reach. Therefore, the report launches a call ahead of the third round of national contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, calling for a reversal of fossil fuel expansion and strengthening international cooperation for a just global transition. The window to keep the 1.5°C target alive is rapidly closing.