Ukraine could become the new mining Eldorado for Americans

It is an agreement that no one imagined, just a few weeks ago, and which could be signed, Friday, February 28 , in Washington, between the American president Donald Trump and the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, according to diplomatic sources. In exchange for continued economic and military support, the United States would obtain the right to exploit the mineral resources of Ukraine, whose subsoil is rich in strategic materials.

The outlines of this agreement remain unclear, however, particularly with regard to the security guarantees provided to the Ukrainians, three years after the outbreak of war by Russia.

" Donald Trump is obsessed with the United States' dependence on China for materials considered strategic ," explains Emmanuel Hache, economist at IFP Énergies nouvelles and research director at Iris . "His goal is to prevent the Chinese, or others, from rushing into Ukraine by signing partnerships, as Beijing has done with many African countries. He was following the same logic when he mentioned an annexation of Greenland at the beginning of the year ."

A great mining tradition

Ukraine is said to concentrate around 5% of the world's mineral resources and a study published in 2023 by the French Bureau of Geological and Mining Research (BRGM) listed more than a hundred minerals. The country also has a long mining tradition, and not just with coal. In 2022, it ranked tenth for iron extraction, according to World Mining Data, a leading publication in the sector. But mining remains fairly modest. In 2024, Ukraine ranked only fortieth among mineral-producing countries, including coal.

The country already produces three critical minerals: manganese (of which it is the eighth largest producer in the world, according to World Mining Data), titanium (11th) and graphite (14th), which is essential for manufacturing electric batteries. Ukraine would thus have "20% of the world's estimated resources" of graphite , estimates the BRGM. It would also be " one of the main countries in Europe in terms of potential" for the exploitation of lithium , which is also essential for batteries.

Many strategic minerals

According to the inventory already carried out by the Ukrainian government, it would also have strontium, which is used in ceramics and electronics; tantalum, a gray metal found in transistors, aircraft turbines or dental prostheses; niobium, used to create superconducting alloys; beryllium, which gives more resistance to materials to build rockets and satellites; and magnetite, for the manufacture of steel.

" Of the 34 materials considered critical by the European Commission, 21 are in Ukraine," underlines Emmanuel Hache, recalling that the latest report from the American Geological Survey cites Ukraine 28 times in its table of the planet's mineral resources.

Uncertainties about operating capabilities

The document, which is expected to be signed in Washington, would stipulate that Americans and Ukrainians would jointly exploit mineral resources and that the revenues would go into a fund "joint to Ukraine and America." American companies could thus obtain concessions for twenty or thirty years. But everything is still very vague.

Donald Trump also mentions the extraction of rare earths. The Ukrainian authorities claim to have them, but no one knows to date whether there are exploitable volumes, for what levels of investment and with what profitability.

The data on which the Ukrainian government relies also dates back to "the Soviet era" and any resources "would be difficult to exploit," the rating agency S&P Global points out in a note. Some of them are, for example, in the Zaporizhzhia region, currently occupied by the Russians. The Shevchenkivske deposit, which is said to contain lithium, tantalum and niobium, is less than ten kilometers from the front.

Big bargain

Russia is also trying to position itself. "We are ready to attract foreign partners to our new historical territories that have been returned to Russia," President Vladimir Putin said in a television interview on February 24, inviting the Americans to come.

" Everyone is moving their pawns forward, but this bargaining increasingly looks like a complete mess, with Ukraine as the new sacrificial land, not to mention the risks of corruption when there are so many economic interests at stake," says Emmanuel Hache.

Finally, there remains the question of refining all these strategic minerals, once they have emerged from the ground. The techniques are known and mastered but require a lot of energy. For experts, it seems difficult to carry out refining in Ukraine, while part of the infrastructure has been destroyed. Unless it is rebuilt very quickly.