Sovereign debt: where does France stand compared to its European neighbors?

Fitch, the agency that assesses the ability of states to repay their debt, is due to announce its new rating for France on Friday, currently at AA-. A downgrade would push borrowing rates up.

The American rating agency Fitch is due to deliver its verdict on France's sovereign debt late Friday, September 12. For France, like other countries, the agencies do not rate the debt of sovereign states as such, but their ability to repay loan maturities. In reality, the agencies are looking at whether we have a genuine desire to reduce debt and public deficits. In other words, whether we are making the necessary efforts through our political and budgetary decisions. The best possible rating is AAA. A rating that France lost in 2013 and has never regained since. Today, we are rated AA-, which remains respectable, as it is the equivalent of a 17/20.

Fitch's last rating was in March 2025. The agency left us alone by not touching its rating, but with a message to read between the lines that meant: "be careful, we continue to monitor you very closely and we encourage you to make efforts." Impliedly, beware of possible sanctions. That's where we are today.

In terms of rating, France is in seventh place. Germany, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg are the three best performers with a triple A rating, as they fully comply with the Maastricht financial criteria, including a public deficit of less than 3% of their GDP and their national wealth. Next come Finland, Austria, and Ireland (AA)... and France with its AA-. For the moment, we are ahead of Belgium and Malta. Note that Spain is among the dropouts with its A-; as for Italy and Greece, it's triple B... even BBB- for Athens. Italy is climbing the slope, and on Thursday, September 11, on the markets, Paris and Rome were repaying their debt with the same ten-year rates of around 3.4%. Which is not very glorious for Paris.

If Fitch downgrades France's rating on Friday, we will fall even lower in the European rankings, which will very likely lead to a rise in repayment rates. Will the rapid appointment of a successor to François Bayrou at Matignon, who is also a "pro-business" man in the person of Sébastien Lecornu, reassure operators? The timing of the appointment is not insignificant... it remains to be seen whether it will resonate with Fitch.

As for the other rating agencies, Moody's will make its decision on October 24, Standard & Poor's on November 28. Less well-known to the general public, the European agency Scope will announce its decision on September 26. These are some deadlines that the French government has well in mind.