Japan Considers Doing Away With Its Villages: “Only Old People Are Left Here”

At the source of the Shimanto River, located in southern Japan and famous for its clear water, lies the village of Tsuno. Nestled among its remote mountains is the district of Kiso, home to fourteen souls spread across seven households.

Hiroshi Kawada, 64, is one of them. When he was a child, the local population numbered about twenty people, from eleven families. “With the deaths of the oldest residents, it gradually dwindled,” he says.

During the autumn festival held there towards the end of 2024, only seven people, including visitors visiting their families, gathered in the village. As a result, they were unable to hold the banquet that traditionally follows the festival.

“Only old people remain here, which makes it difficult to organize,” explains Hiroshi Kawada. No one talks about it, but the village's imminent disappearance is evident.

According to estimates by Hiromasa Watanabe, a geographer at Ehime University in southern Japan, 496 of the 4,676 settlements in Kochi Prefecture, home to Tsuno, are already uninhabited. By 2050, that number is expected to reach 930, or one-fifth.

About forty years ago, Akira Ono, then a professor at Kochi University, noticed this while traveling through the prefecture's mountainous areas. There, several local towns were struggling to survive due to depopulation and an aging population. In an article published in 1988, he described them as "dying villages." The expression shocked Japan, which was then at the height of the economic bubble.

In the meantime, the trend has only worsened. For more than a decade, not only remote hamlets but entire local communities have been facing the threat of disappearing.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba [who resigned at the end of July] has made regional revitalization his government's top priority. "It is essential to make the most of the regions' potential for the country's future development," he maintains.

His speech, however, does not excite Masato Nishimori, head of Tsuno's urban planning department: "Faced with the depopulation of the regions, the state and the prefectures are recommending bringing in people from outside. But who would want to settle in villages on the brink of collapse? Even if we increase the budget, I don't see how we could attract new residents."

Historically, rural areas have provided human and material resources to Japan's city-based economy. If they were to disappear, what would the consequences be?

Kimihiro Akiya, a sociologist at Kochi Prefectural University who has traveled through the region's mountain villages, now views Japan's future in light of the region's increasing depopulation: "We tend to think of population decline as a regional problem. But we forget how much it robs the country of its economic power. With their labor, food production, and timber, the regions have compensated for shortages and sustained Japan's growth. Without them, cities have no resources."

It was in 2006 that Hirokazu Sakuno, a professor at Shimane University [in western Japan], advocated the idea of ​​mura osame [“village enclosure”]. This concept consists of “accompanying the end of life” of depopulated localities. While supporting their last inhabitants, local history and culture are recorded for transmission while it is still possible, and the owners of abandoned houses and fields are identified so that they can be managed jointly with local authorities.

“I don't think we're completely powerless in the face of the disappearance of villages, but we can't preserve everything,” said Hirokazu Sakuno, who, at the time when the slogan “Revitalizing the countryside” was being promoted, was the target of criticism. Nineteen years later, some local governments have begun to adopt his approach.

This is the case in the city of Masuda, in Shimane Prefecture, which is currently working on a basic plan for the promotion of mountain areas. “It's not that we want to get rid of the hamlets, but the municipality cannot continue to allocate large budgets to them,” admits a city hall official . “We don't see a good solution, but we have to keep thinking.”

Nobuhiro Sato, who is participating in the planning process, lives in a hamlet of just five people in the mountain village of Asaka, part of the city of Masuda. He is ready to discuss decisions with the authorities and face a difficult future: “In five years, I'll be pretty much the only one who can get around, but the power lines, roads, and pipelines will still be there. To what extent should we preserve them? I'd like the city to set a certain limit.”

However, localities that accept mura osame are still rare. Hirokazu Sakuno sounds the alarm:

“What do we do with the abandoned homes and infrastructure? It is time for state and local authorities to stop turning a blind eye to this reality.”

While many rural localities are threatened with disappearance, the town of Higashikawa, in Hokkaido [large northern island of the archipelago], has seen its population grow for thirty years.

It has grown from fewer than 7,000 inhabitants in 1994 to some 8,500 today. One in two residents has moved there in the last twenty-five years. According to municipal estimates, the population will reach 9,000 by 2035. Its secret lies in an urban planning policy that promotes the city and increases its “related population,” that is, people who are regularly in contact with the region.

The town began its transformation in 1985 when it declared itself a “Photography Village,” focusing its communication on photographic culture and the appeal of its rural landscapes. In summer, its International Photography Festival attracts some 30,000 visitors.

The furusato nozei [tax reduction scheme through donation to a local government] is called the “Higashikawa Shareholding Scheme” here, with donors considered shareholders. The city has also turned its attention abroad, establishing the country's first public Japanese language school in 2015.

Population growth, however, is not the municipality's priority. It aims for an "appropriate population density," neither too low nor too high, favoring a pleasant living environment surrounded by nature. Residential areas emphasize large communal areas and abundant greenery.

“We will continue to offer a rich lifestyle that stands out from that of large cities by making the most of Higashikawa’s character and environment,” said Mayor Shin Kikuchi. “Developing our territory with people who share these values ​​is a guarantee of sustainability.”

Less prosperous, the city of Hida, created in 2004 from the merger of four localities in Gifu Prefecture [central Japan], was faced with a harsh reality in 2016. Due to a lack of staff, the retirement home located in the former town of Kamioka, the most remote part of the city, was unable to staff the night shift. The twenty beds that had been added to accommodate the aging population remained unoccupied.

To cover the school's human resource needs, the city government allocated aid to pay night shift compensation. It also established a "reception point" for potential candidates in collaboration with a specialized school in Ikeda, a town in the same prefecture, some 150 kilometers away.

These measures, however, remain insufficient given the rapidly aging local population. To reduce the burden on caregivers and create more sustainable working conditions, a task-sharing system has also been implemented. Healthy local seniors are trained in housekeeping, clearing tables, and changing sheets. In recognition of their contribution, they receive points that they can exchange for goods. Similarly, a coordination mechanism between residents and local businesses has been created to better manage tasks such as snow removal, lawn mowing, and garbage collection, for which there is also a significant shortage of staff.

Whenever the city faces a labor shortage, Hida City addresses it by tapping into local resources. Beyond these initiatives, what are the means available to small towns to overcome their declining population?

“We have no way to stop the phenomenon. We can only adapt to it,” said Mayor Junya Tsuzuke, who stressed the importance of relentlessly seeking improvements if the measures adopted do not work, something he calls “political endurance.” He added:

“In areas where the population is inexorably declining, there is no single model to solve the problem.”

If this disappearance of villages were inevitable, how would it affect the lives of people living in large cities?

“The cost to city dwellers will be higher if they try to keep small towns at all costs,” he replies. Tomoya Mori, economist at Kyoto University.

In the future, Japan as a whole will experience a rapid population decline. Even though the government strives to spread the country's population through its regional revitalization program, only a limited number of these regions will ultimately be able to maintain the services and infrastructure they need to survive.