Canadian prairie grains and oilseeds face pressure from the United States and China

Steel, aluminum, lumber: many Canadian industries are in Donald Trump's crosshairs. The grain sector, which employs 370,000 people and plays a vital role in the Prairies (Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan), may seem spared from the trade war waged by the American president. For now, grains exported to the United States (canola, corn, oats in particular) are not affected by customs duties – on Thursday, July 31, Donald Trump signed an executive order increasing tariffs on Canadian products entering the United States from 25% to 35% as of August ¹ , except for those covered by the North American Free Trade Agreement. But the climate of unpredictability instilled by the American billionaire has been enough to sow concern among Canadian producers.

After a surge at the start of the trade war, Ottawa is anticipating a hard comeback, with a drop of nearly 10% in grain exports for 2025-2026 . "Uncertainty with the United States remains a constant concern. It makes our customers nervous. Grain buyers are probably not making offers as aggressive as usual, because they do not know what trade with the United States will look like in the future." laments Bill Prybylski, president of the Saskatchewan Agricultural Producers Association. For grain producers, exports are vital: three-quarters of Canada's wheat – now the world's third-largest exporter – is exported abroad.

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