What will happen to the dollar after the elections: the Central Bank's REM Top 10 projections

The Central Bank 's latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) provided a key signal for the dollar: the ten most accurate analysts—those who make up the so-called Top 10 —project a progressive rise in the wholesale exchange rate for the remainder of 2025, without abrupt jumps and at a contained pace . The report, published on May 8, was the first since the implementation of the government's new exchange rate scheme and included forecasts from 41 consulting firms and financial institutions.

According to this group of specialists, the dollar is expected to close December at around $1.322 , implying a year-over-year change of 29.5% . This figure is below the projected inflation rate, suggesting a real appreciation of the peso, in line with the official managed exchange rate policy.

The Top 10 forecasts indicate that the wholesale dollar is expected to remain on an upward path, but without any discretionary increases. For May , an average value of $1.158 is expected, below the general consensus that projected $1.171 . In June , the projection is $1.181 , and in July , $1.204 . The monthly trend is expected to continue with $1.228 in August , $1.252 in September and $1.276 in October , the month in which the national legislative elections will be held.

In November , the dollar is expected to reach $1.299 and end December at the aforementioned $1.322 . Analysts also estimated an average exchange rate of $1.569 for December 2026 , representing an 18.7% increase compared to the projected close for this year.

The dynamics forecast by the Top 10 are consistent with the overall REM median: an exchange rate expected to range between monthly increases of 1.9% and 2.2% , with slight accelerations toward the end of the year. The current situation contrasts with the volatility of previous years and reflects a commitment to maintaining a gradual devaluation path.

The behavior of the wholesale dollar has direct implications for the design of indexed contracts. It also affects pricing in foreign trade transactions and the budget planning of companies with foreign exchange exposure. For many financial operators, the Top 10 projections serve as a reference guide for hedging, arbitrage, and cost strategies.

The REM was conducted between April 28 and 30 , and although it includes 41 participants, the BCRA separately highlights the ten firms with the best historical performance in their estimates. These are firms that, based on the history of previous reports, show the least deviation from the actual evolution of the projected variables.

This report also reaffirms that the projections are based on the BCRA 's Reference Exchange Rate —the so-called Communication "A" 3500—which acts as an anchor for much of the wholesale market and for domestic price formation.