The US deficit will rise to 9% in 10 years with Trump's fiscal policies.

The United States is facing a major problem with its public finances. The country closed the 2023 fiscal year with a fiscal deficit of $1.7 trillion, or 6.3% of GDP , and experts estimate that Donald Trump's fiscal policies, if maintained over time, would increase the public accounts deficit by a sustained 7% to 9% of GDP without cuts to public spending.

It is true that Donald Trump's proposals for the next fiscal year (2026), which were presented in May 2025, have a cost-saving approach, marked by significant cuts in social programs and science , along with substantial increases in areas such as Defense and Homeland Security.

Specifically, the Defense Department expects to increase the budget by 13%, reaching $1 trillion. As for Homeland Security, the budget is projected to increase by 65%, with a record investment of $175 billion to enhance border security with Mexico.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonprofit organization tasked with analyzing U.S. public finances, is highlighting the extension of the 2017 tax cuts through the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and the new tax deductions it proposes.

Specifically, the think tank estimates that these policies would increase the country's debt by $7.7 trillion between 2026 and 2035 under an intermediate scenario.

The CRFB estimates that Trump's tax proposals—extending and expanding tax cuts—would reduce federal revenue by nearly $10.4 trillion over that period.

Implementing these measures without compensatory spending cuts would increase the deficit "by an annual average of approximately $1 trillion, especially through fiscal year 2026.

This increase in the primary deficit represents approximately 1.5% of the annual Gross Domestic Product over that period. Considering that GDP is projected to be around $35 trillion by 2035, this increase adds to the existing structural deficit, which could raise the total public accounts deficit to nearly 5% of GDP over the next decade.

On the other hand, the CRFB estimates that, under Donald Trump's tax plan, the country's spending would reach nearly 21% of GDP in fiscal year 2035, if no changes are made.

Despite cuts in certain items, Trump's fiscal and defense policies, without compensatory revenue measures or structural adjustments, would lead to higher deficits and a sustained increase in federal debt.

Tax Foundation economists explain that "some of Trump's tax proposals are well-designed and would be efficient ways to promote long-term economic growth, such as permanent expense accounting for machinery, equipment, and research and development."

Although they have not yet issued their assessment of the 2026 fiscal year plan, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has already warned that the fiscal policies proposed by the US president would send debt and deficits spiraling out of control over the next decade. The debt is expected to grow to nearly 102% of GDP at the beginning of fiscal year 2026 and to 125% by the end of 2035. Thus, the debt will surpass its record as a percentage of the economy (106% set in 1946) in three years.

In the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest Fiscal Monitor, published in April of this year, they forecast an upward trajectory for US debt, well above the CBO forecast. Specifically, they expect it to close this year at 122.5% of GDP . The country's debt will increase by around one percentage point per year until it reaches a record 128.2% by 2030. Furthermore, it will be one of the highest among advanced economies.

The multilateral organization attributes this lack of control in public accounts to the escalation of the trade war, although it also warns that they are "highly uncertain" due to the uncertainty this generates. However, they warn that the high level of debt will have a negative impact on the economy and other sources of tax revenue.