The risks that the proposal for a constituent assembly generates in the national economy

President Gustavo Petro's new proposal to move forward with convening a Constituent Assembly to amend the 1991 Constitution, according to analysts and academics, has several legal drawbacks. It already affects the country's investment climate, would generate turmoil in the markets, and will once again strain high courts such as the Constitutional Court and the Council of State.

Just hours after the labor reform was approved in Congress, Petro surprised everyone by announcing the convening of a Constituent Assembly. The president asserted that this call responds to the mandate of the "sovereign power, which is the people," and that the previously announced referendum is no longer necessary.

(See: Call for a constituent assembly will have to go through Congress for approval ).

The president affirmed that a ballot will be handed out as part of the process in the upcoming 2026 elections and asserted that "the participation of the people is necessary to change Colombia" because in this matter, popular wisdom must be expressed at the ballot box, "where the people are king."

The words generated many reactions, asking whether this initiative will formally advance through institutional channels.

For economics professor Jorge Restrepo, Petro's idea would have economic impacts and a fundamental undertone. What the government did with the declaration of the referendum and now with its intention to convene a Constituent Assembly are two constitutional crises generated by the executive branch, as it puts the Constitution to the test, putting the institutions and the Constitution under strain, almost in the final part of its administration, knowing it cannot do so.

(See: Petro announces he will repeal the referendum, but insists on a constituent assembly .)

Investor risk

" There are risks for investors because the message is that the rules by which the economy operates can be changed by elements other than those that legally exist ," Restrepo added.

And he continued: “ In the case of the announcement of the referendum, there came the decree, then the suspension, and now the repeal, and I believe the same thing is coming now with what they say they are seeking to convene the Constituent Assembly, with mechanisms different from those established by the Constitution itself, and that will once again put the Council of State and the Constitutional Court in tension. The discussion has to be about why they want to change the Constitution and how they are going to introduce the ballot, whether through a state of internal unrest and their argument, whether they are going to create a new Registry or have the Armed Forces count the ballots .”

For his part, José Manuel Restrepo, former Minister of Finance and rector of EIA University, said that “ the idea of ​​a so-called 'constituent ballot' is legally unviable, institutionally risky, and technically obsolete. The Court has reiterated in key rulings that only Congress can authorize a Constituent Assembly. The president cannot impose it or order a ballot without prior law, constitutional oversight, or coordination with electoral authorities. Furthermore, the electoral system no longer allows for spontaneous or parallel ballots as it did in 1990. Everything is regulated by the Registry and the Electoral Council .”

(See: Possible changes in the Bank of the Republic and the constituent assembly worry JP Morgan ).

He said that reviving that figure is more of a "symbolic trick to stir emotions, which is nothing more than a bird in the air."

Instead, according to Restrepo , the proposal diverts attention from the country's pressing problems, such as security, terrorism, health, and governance, as evidenced by recent events like the assassination attempt on Miguel Uribe's life. Furthermore, regarding similar ideas, there is no public outcry or national consensus, as there was in 1991. This isn't unity; it's calculated polarization.

Carlos Gustavo Cano, former Minister of Agriculture, says that Petro's initiative is a bad idea and that what is needed is " to surround the institutionality, the support of democracy ."

(See: Petro is asked to invest Constituent Assembly resources in the neediest sectors ).

Former minister Mauricio Cárdenas Santamaría said that changing the Constitution is not the solution and asked President Petro to respect democracy and give the country fair elections in 2026.

Calling it is already in the Constitution

" It's not possible to convene a Constituent Assembly without going through Congress. In 1990, there was a justification, since the 1986 Constitution only included Congress, but the 1991 Constitution opened up mechanisms for participation ," said constitutionalist Alfonso Gómez Méndez.

He asked what problem the government wants to solve, since the 1991 Charter has several mechanisms that could even make further progress.

The Constituent Assembly is contemplated in the 1991 Constitution itself to reform it. It is initiated by Congress, through a proposal from the government, legislators, or a citizen initiative supported by at least two million signatures.

HOLMAN RODRÍGUEZ MARTÍNEZJournalist Portfolio